Hey sports fans, and a warm welcome back to Don Best Sports where we’re going to talk about getting the best of the number and what to do when you get a bad number.
My suggestion is always try to bet as early as you possibly can, getting your work done. The sooner the number comes out the sooner you can bet that number, and the better opinion you have the better number you’re going to get. For example, it’s much better to lay 2.5 in an NFL game than lay 3 as there’s a gigantic difference in your win percentage on those two numbers. It’s almost 5%, so if you’re trying to hit 60% on the year, you’re not going to do it laying 3 when you could’ve laid 2.5
Another important part is market numbers. If the market is bearing 4.5 everywhere and your guy has 5.5, there’s just no use laying it, you’d be better passing. There’s certainly no use buying that point or buying a half point. Please, never do that.
The only place where half a point is of any value is on or off 3 in the NFL. I’d lay $1.25 or maybe even a $1.30 in that kind of situation. A lot of times when I look at the betting and see a team sitting at -3, I’ll go to the moneyline instead.
Switching to when the numbers really run, and this happens in college football. If you bet a college football total over 60 and it runs to 66, so many people would say bet it all back and middle it. That’s not something I’d agree with. The reason for that is with the number at 66 everyone can now bet that number, but no one can grab over 60 because you have that. That’s value in your pocket.
Now, we know value doesn’t always count as a win, but I do suggest you bet some of your money back up to about 20% every five points. If it did move 10 points, I’d probably bet about 40% back because you’d then benefit from having such a large middle. The bigger the middle, the more I would bet back. I’d never want to bet 50% of that back, unless that was the plan going in and you had already decided to bet more on the game but middle it.
An example of this would be if you knew it was going to go up and admitted you didn’t like it over, but you thought the rest of the world would. In the Monday night football game you could bet over 48.5 and know everyone else will bet over. It goes to 51 and you wanted to bet the same amount back, that would be fine. If that’s planned and that’s the way you wanted to bet then that’s the way you should bet. Always stick with your instincts.
How does it work if you get the worst of the number? What happens if you bet that game over the 48.5 and it doesn’t go up, but it goes down 47.5. You don’t want to middle yourself, that’s the worst feeling you could have in that predicament. So, at that point, you have to watch the numbers and start to see it go down and try to get a number as near to the one you bet as possible.
Again, I would never suggest buying a half point or a point in that spot to try to get back to even. Instead, I would take the chance that you’re not going to get middled and get off that bet at the best possible number.
Sports betting is similar to a stock market, but the problem is it’s not a gradual win, sometimes it’s 100% lose or 100% win. Sometimes you can make it a bit more like a stock market by betting games early, getting on one side and coming back and betting maybe 60 – 80% on the other side knowing you don’t need any type of decision, you’re more there to earn or try to middle game.
Very interesting stuff and a lot of fun, but do your homework and get down early. The numbers get better the longer they are on the board because some sharp guys are betting into it and moving that number to get to the right betting number, somewhere near where it’s supposed to be.
Stay tuned at Don Best Sports for more sports betting information.