GAME: (145) MIAMI DOLPHINS vs (146) PITTSBURGH STEELERS
PICKS: (146) PITTSBURGH STEELERS
REASON FOR PICK:
My free play is on the Pit Steelers at 1:00 ET.
The Pittsburgh Steelers lost Thanksgiving night at Baltimore putting a hurt on their wild card chances. Conversely, the Dolphins won their Week 13 game 23-3 at the Jets, evening their record at 6-6, leaving them tied with the Ravens (although Baltimore currently owns the tie-breaker) for the AFC’s final playoff spot.
The Dolphins are an interesting study in 2013. Miami could easily be much better than its 6-6 record, as the Dolphins lost winnable games against Baltimore, Buffalo, Tampa Bay and Carolina (those games decided by 12 total points). However, we are all aware od the famous Bill Parcells quote: “You are what your record says you are.” This Miami team lacks discipline and often fails to execute. The warm-weather Dolphins visit Heinz Field where the game time temperature will likely be below freezing and there is a chance of snow flurries.
Pittsburgh has some extra rest from its Thanksgiving night game and QB Big Ben plus its defense, has been rejuvenated since the team’s poor start. Big Ben has 13 TD passes and just three INTs over his last five games and Pittsburgh defense has allowed an average of just 17.5 PPG over its last four, after allowing 26.0 PPG through the team's first eight games. The Steelers have won FIVE straight meetings with the Dolphins dating to a loss at Miami on Sept 20, 1998. Make that SIX in a row!
GAME: (805) INDIANA PACERS vs (806) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
PICKS: (806) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
REASON FOR PICK: Two of the best teams in the NBA matchup here on Sunday evening as the Indiana Pacers travel to Oklahoma City to take on the Thunder. The Pacers have lost just twice this season and have a 17-2 S/U mark and 14-5 ATS record. Oklahoma City is 14-4 and have won 9-1 in their last 10 games. But the main reason I'm backing the Thunder tonight is the fact that the Pacers are playing the second of a back-to-back road series and this will also be the teams fifth straight away contest. In the Pacers two losses this season, both came in the second of a back to back road spot, just like tonight. In fact, the Pacers are just 1-3 ATS this season in the second of a back-to-back matchup. Both teams are excellent clubs, but a strong team like OK City catching the Pacers in a weary road spot is too much to pass on. Your free play is on the OKC Thunder.
GAME: (151) ST. LOUIS RAMS vs (152) ARIZONA CARDINALS
PICKS: (152) ARIZONA CARDINALS
REASON FOR PICK: Sunday's Free NFL Winner is Arizona over St. Louis. The NFC West is owned by Seattle at 11-1, but they have a showdown today with 2nd place, San Francisco, who is 8-4. Arizona is 7-5. And St. Louis is 5-7. Outside of the NFC South's, Saints and Panthers, the NFC is up for grabs. St. Louis beat Arizona, 27-24 back in September. However, over the last month and a half, the Cardinals are 4-1 both SU and ATS while the Rams are 2-4 SU, going 3-3 ATS. Arizona won 4 straight before a heartbreaking 24-21, loss to Philly last week. 'Zona has Carson Palmer's 3189 YP and 19 TDs. Unfortunately they also have his 17 INTs as well. The backfield of Mendenhall and (expected to play) Ellington, have 908 YR and 7 scores. Wideouts, Floyd and Fitzgerald will tear up St. Louis' 19th ranked Passing Defense. The Rams are a mess on offense, ranking 26th in Passing and 25th in Overall Yards. Center, Scott Wells broke his leg last week and is out, leaving poor QB, Kellen Clemons in the lurch. The workload falls upon RB, Zac Stacy. But he must face the 4th best Rush "D" in the NFL, who is also the 7th best in Yards Allowed, and 8th in Overall Points Allowed. Take Arizona here with a small lean. But to ensure a profit this weekend, get all my winners right here. This is Joe D'Amico. Thank you.
Sports fans, I have gotten you paid 8 of the L10 Sunday's. This Sunday will be my best NFL day this season as I have my 7-2 HIGH ROLLER, 4-1 TOP-RATED, and AFC GAME OF THE YEAR. I WILL GO 3-0!$!$!$.
GAME: (149) TENNESSEE TITANS vs (150) DENVER BRONCOS
PICKS: (149) TENNESSEE TITANS
REASON FOR PICK: This is a 1* Free Play on Tennessee.
Obviously, the Broncos are a very good team. That doesn't mean that they can't be over-valued though.
In this case, I believe the number will prove to be a little too high.
Let's check it out.
The Titans have been at their best on the road. In six games away from Tennessee this season, they're 5-1 ATS.
They won outright at Pittsburgh, St. Louis and Oakland. They lost at Indianapolis, Seattle and Houston.
A closer look at those three road losses reveals that none of them came by more than eight points. The Titans lost by six at Houton, by seven at Seattle and by eight at Indianapolis.
The only time that the Titans were double-digit underdogs was at Seattle, a game where they covered the spread.
As for the Broncos, they've now seen four straight games decided by 10 or fewer points.
With three of the Broncos' last four games coming against divisional opponents - and the other a primetime thriller vs. the Patriots - it may be a little hard to "get up" for the Titans.
Despite their 5-7 overall record, the Titans remain in the hunt in the AFC Wildcard race. They know they desperately need this game though, if they want to keep their hopes alive. I won't be surprised to see them keep things much closer than many will be expecting. Consider taking the points.
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