GAME: (595) RICHMOND vs (596) DAYTON
PICKS: (596) DAYTON
REASON FOR PICK: The dynamics are a lot different from the first meeting at the Robins Center back on Jan. 18, when Richmond pulled away to a 73-64 win. That was during the days when Spider HC Chris Mooney still had the services of star G and top scorer Cedrick Lindsay (18.3 ppg), who netted 17 that game but has since been shut down due to a knee injury. Once Lindsay went out in early February, Richmond was not the same team, as three losses in its last four (including back-to-back vs. second-division A-10 sides George Mason & Rhode island) have probably consigned the Spiders to the NIT after they were hanging on the Big Dance bubble for the past two months. Meanwhile, it's the Flyers who are now surging toward a possible NCAA Tourney bid with SU wins in 8 of their last 9, including back-to-back vs. A-10 heavyweights UMass & Saint Louis. Play Dayton
GAME: (527) BAYLOR vs (528) KANSAS STATE
PICKS: (528) KANSAS STATE
REASON FOR PICK: This is a 1* Free Play on Kansas State.
Kansas State is coming off a double digit loss at resurgent Oklahoma State but I expect it to get back on the winning track here with a home date versus Baylor. Note that the Wildcats are money at home with a 15-1 SU record this season. After losing their second game of the season at home to Northern Colorado, the Wildcats have won 14 straight home games, including all nine Big 12 Conference home games. Baylor in comparison is just 4-5 SU on the road and is 3-6 SU as the underdog. Kansas State is a perfect 3-0 ATS as the home favorite or three points or less and is a strong 10-5 ATS as the favorite overall. Baylor earned an 87-73 OT win over Kansas State back on Feb. 15 at home. Kansas State probably still feels they should have won that game as they had the lead late and failed to get win double OT and will be looking for revenge in this game. Kansas State is 4-1 ATS revenging a loss to an opponent this season. This is the final home game of the season for Kansas State and win here would cap off an excellent season on home court for the Wildcats. Baylor meanwhile is coming off its home finale with a strong win over ranked Iowa State. A letdown is quite conceivable here as the team has fought so hard to get back to a respectable 8-9 in conference play. I think Baylor’s run ends here though. Consider laying the points.
GAME: (559) SOUTH CAROLINA vs (560) MISSISSIPPI STATE
PICKS: (559) SOUTH CAROLINA
REASON FOR PICK: Play On: South Carolina.
Note: After facing the likes of Kentucky and Florida, this should be a walk in the park for the Gamecocks who are 4-0 SU versus sub .480 opponents this season – plus they were bumped from the SEC tourney by the Bulldogs last year so they’ll be looking for payback. Frank Martin got his biggest win thus far in Columbia on Saturday over Kentucky, as his team responded to the ejection of Wildcat HC John Calapari in the second half by taking the lead for good. It was South Carolina’s first victory over a Top 25 team in three years so it’s easy to see why the school was unable to avoid the fans’ storming of the court at the final buzzer, costing the university a $25,000 fine. In this series, the Bulldogs are on their backs looking up, going 4-8 SU and 3-9 ATS if less than .625, including 0-5 ATS if favored and 0-5 ATS at home. MSU is also off a string of five consecutive revengers in a row, and they’re riding an 11-game losing skid at press time. Since the Dogs have made a habit of burning the cash when favored (4-16 ATS in the 20 games as chalk, including 0-2 this season), we recommend a 1-unit play on South Carolina. Thank you and good lucks as always.
It's a fact: Marc's Famous Qualified Last Home Game Play of the Year is documented 14-2 the last 16 years (Kentucky +5.5 over Florida last season - a SU winner). This year's big play tips Saturday and it's yours right here, right now. Don't miss out!
GAME: (501) UTAH JAZZ vs (502) PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
REASON FOR PICK: Your free pick for Saturday, March 8th, 2014, comes in the NBA as Jazz and the 76ers meet in Philadelphia. Utah isn't playing much defense, 15th in the NBA in points allowed, 25th in field goal shooting defense allowing .464% shooting by opponents. They gave up 104 this week in a loss at Washington and this is the second of a back to back spot after playing the Knicks last night....tired legs means bad defense. The over is 4-1 in Utah's last 5 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. And speaking of bad defense no one is worse or lazier at the defensive end than the 76ers, 30th in points allowed (111 ppg) and second to last allowing .469% shooting by opponents. The Oklahoma City Thunder defeat the woeful Philadelphia 76ers 125-92 on Tuesday night. The 76ers have allowed at least 100 points in 14 of the 15 losses during their skid. All but three of the defeats have been by double digits. The over is 6-0 in 76ers last 6 vs. a team with a losing record. When these teams meet the over is 16-5 in the last 21 meetings, including 7-3 over the total in the last 10 meetings in Philadelphia. Play the Jazz/76ers over the total.