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Patrick Mahomes II AFC Championship Game Passing Player Prop Bets - Insights, Tips, and Trends

Patrick Mahomes II and the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Buffalo Bills on Sunday in the AFC Championship Game at Arrowhead Stadium. Here are some betting insights and tips for Mahomes' passing prop bets against the Bills. Watch Mahomes' Chiefs square off with the Bills at 6:40 PM ET on CBS.

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Patrick Mahomes II Passing Prop Bets (1/24/2021)

Patrick Mahomes II Passing Prop Bets
Over/Under Over Odds Under Odds
Completions 23.5 -113 -117
Attempts 38.5 -119 -111
Yards 311.5 -115 -115
TDs 2.5 -131 101
INTs 0.5 -106 -124

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Betting Trends - Completions

  • Mahomes' per-game passing completions average (25.7) is 2.2 more than his prop bet over/under in Sunday's game (23.5).
  • Mahomes had more than 23.5 completions in 11 out of 16 games this season (68.8% of his opportunities).
  • Mahomes has averaged 0.8 more completions per game than his season-long average prop bet total (24.9).
  • In only seven of 16 games this year, Mahomes has hit the over on completions prop bets (43.8% of his opportunities).
  • Mahomes' average prop bet for completions is 24.9. He's gone over that total in half his games.
  • In his one career matchup against the Bills, Mahomes notched 21 completions, 2.5 fewer completions than his over/under in Sunday's game.
  • In one career game against the Bills, Mahomes has failed to surpass this week's prop bet total of 23.5 passing completions.

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Betting Trends - Attempts

  • Mahomes has averaged 0.1 more passing attempts per game (38.6) than his prop bet total in Sunday's game (38.5).
  • In 10 of 16 games this year (62.5%), Mahomes has attempted more than 38.5 passes.
  • The average passing attempt prop bet over/under for Mahomes this year is 38.4. He often has outperformed that number, averaging 38.6 attempts per game, 0.2 more than his average prop.
  • 62.5% of the time this year (10 of 16 games), Mahomes has surpassed his passing attempts prop bet total.
  • In 10 of his 16 games (62.5%), Mahomes has thrown the ball more times than his average passing attempts prop bet total this season (38.4).
  • In his single career matchup against the Bills, Mahomes put up 26 pass attempts, 12.5 fewer attempts than his over/under in Sunday's game.
  • Mahomes has failed to exceed this week's prop bet total of 38.5 passing attempts in one lifetime game against the Bills.

Betting Trends - Passing Yards

  • Mahomes has racked up 312.2 passing yards per game in the 2020 season, 0.7 yards more than Sunday's passing yards prop total.
  • In eight of 16 games this season (50%), Mahomes has thrown for more than 311.5 yards.
  • Mahomes' average passing yards prop bet this season is 307.9, which he's exceeded by 4.3 yards on average this year.
  • Mahomes has exceeded his passing yards total in 56.2% of his opportunities this season (nine of 16 games).
  • In exactly half of his games this season, Mahomes has thrown for more than his average passing yards over/under of 307.9.
  • In his lone career matchup against the Bills, Mahomes had 225 passing yards, 86.5 fewer yards than his over/under in Sunday's game.
  • Sportsbooks have set Mahomes' passing yards prop bet total for this week at 311.5 yards, a number he has failed to go over in one lifetime game against the Bills.

Betting Trends - Passing Touchdowns

  • Mahomes is averaging 2.4 passing touchdowns per game, 0.1 fewer than the over/under of 2.5 set for Sunday's outing.
  • Mahomes has scored more than 2.5 passing touchdowns in 37.5% of his games this year (six out of 16).
  • Mahomes' season average of 2.4 passing touchdowns per game is 0.2 less than the average over/under of his passing touchdowns prop bets, 2.6.
  • In just six of his 16 games (37.5%), Mahomes has hit the over on passing touchdown prop bets.
  • Mahomes has scored more than 2.6 passing touchdowns -- his season-long average passing touchdowns prop bet over under -- in only six of his 16 games (37.5%).
  • Mahomes' two touchdown passes in his one career matchup against the Bills are 0.5 fewer touchdowns than his over/under in Sunday's game.
  • In one career game versus the Bills, Mahomes has failed to exceed this week's prop bet total of 2.5 passing touchdowns.

Betting Trends - Interceptions

  • Mahomes throws 0.4 interceptions per game this season, 0.1 fewer than his prop bet in Sunday's game (0.5).
  • In 25% of his games this year (four out of 16), Mahomes has tossed more than 0.5 interceptions.
  • Mahomes has thrown 0.1 fewer interceptions (0.4 per game) than his season average prop bet (0.5).
  • In just 25% of his games (four of 16), Mahomes has gone over his interceptions prop bet total.
  • Mahomes has gone over his average interceptions prop bet total (0.5 interceptions) in just 25% of his games this season (four of 16 games).
  • In his only career matchup against the Bills, Mahomes threw zero interceptions, 0.5 fewer interceptions than his over/under in Sunday's game.
  • Oddsmakers have set Mahomes' interceptions prop bet total for this week at 0.5 picks, a number he has failed to eclipse in one total game against the Bills.

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Get the best football picks and NFL football picks from the industry's most formidable sports handicapping team. Football picks that will keep you winning all season. Get NFL football picks and free football picks from the top guys in the industry. NFL football picks for football betting are offered every day with a complete analysis.
U.S. Citizens Please Note: The information contained at this website is for news and entertainment purposes only. Any use of this information in violation of federal, state, provincial or local laws is strictly prohibited.
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