Ohio State and Penn State do battle on October 31 live on ABC. Don Best’s betting expert Joe D’Amico analyses the game and makes his pick.
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A breakdown of the Ohio State/Penn State matchup
The line officially opened up Ohio State as an -8-point favorite and has soared all the way up to -12 and even a few -12.5's are floating around as of Wednesday afternoon.
With a big showing in their 52-17 rout of Nebraska, Ohio State has jumped two spots in the AP poll up to No. 3. Penn State, following their 36-35 OT loss to Indiana, plummeted from the No. 8 spot all the way down to a lowly, No. 18.
If you judge this contest solely from both combatants opening-week performances, the play is on the Buckeyes. Many thought these two teams just might have represented the Big Ten in the College Football Playoff. If this game goes as the lines makers would want you to believe, the Nittany Lions are going to start the 2020 season at 0-2 which would give them absolutely no chance at the CFP. I think this might make them a bit dangerous here.
There is no arguing that OSU is an outstanding team full of play-makers, but they showed a bit of weakness on the defensive side of the ball, particularly against the run in Week 1. The press release states the PSU running back, Noah Cain is out for the season after sustaining an injury against Indiana. However, in these times you must wade through what is real and what is fake news. This squad is loaded at the running back position and their quarterback, Sean Clifford, himself tallied 119 yards rushing last week.
Ohio State sustained a few injuries as well. Wide receiver, Chris Olave and guard, Wyatt Davis are both questionable here (check status). Dual-threat, quarterback, Justin Fields is a stud and has an arsenal of weapons at his disposal.
Head-to-head, the Buckeyes have won eight of the L10 SU but have only covered four of the last 10 in this series.
ATS #'s: OSU is always a covering machine and sports a 10-3 ATS mark in conference play, 35-16 ATS L51 on grass, and 13-5 ATS L18 overall. While PSU isn't the greatest overall against the spread going 1-4 ATS L5 vs. the Big Ten and 1-5 ATS L6 at home, their numbers in and underdog role are excellent as they are 4-0 ATS L4 as a home 'dog and 7-1 ATS L8 overall as a 'dog.
With the line going up the first few days of the week, this means the general public, which will always bet Ohio State, has played the early money.
I spoke to a couple of "sharps" that told me they are waiting for the line to rise a bit more then they are going to hit Penn State because they feel the rivalry and the bounce-back mode will occur. I will leave the decision up to you folks. Good luck.
Joe D’Amico is a third-generation race and sports personality. He boasts decades of experience beating the sportsbook and is a well known face in Las Vegas. He calls upon his impressive connections to maximise profits and minimise expenditure and can help you do the same. Take advantage of Joe’s picks and subscriptions at DonBest.com.