Welcome to Don Best Sports and today we’re going to talk about adjustments and your power ratings.
In my opinion, power ratings is the only way you can handicap and that’s because the power rating is a reflection of the true strength of a team. I always like to get all my sports to 100 as an average team. So, if a team are 107, they would be 7 points better than the average team. If they were a 90, they’d be 10 points weaker than an average team.
All my power ratings work off that but, adjusting those numbers game after game is very important. You can’t miss a game, you simply have to adjust your numbers because sometimes it will take too long to catch up if you miss. The quicker you adjust, the better the number you’re going to get when you’re making a bet in the next game.
If you don’t have an algorithm it’s going to be difficult to adjust both teams to the same amount of points. I just don’t think it works because, in some situations, one team is better than the other team and I wouldn’t want to adjust the good team up because they beat a bad team. I may adjust the bad team down if they looked particularly bad in that game.
I don’t always adjust both teams, I go on my algorithm which works off how the game is played, the efficiency of each team and I also look at the betting line and see what that did. You can take a lot from the betting.
For example, if you made a basketball game 6 before the start and the betting opens up at 10, you like the underdog so you’d take the 10 points. If it goes to 11, 12 and then that team wins by 15 points you lose your bet because the line went against your numbers. You’d then have to take an aggressive look at why that happened. Was your underdog really that bad or was the favourite really that good?
I wouldn’t want to make adjustments of 1.5 on one team and 1 on the other. The next time I made the line on that game I’d make it 8.5, so if the line opens up at 10 again you’d be best to pass because it’s too short. It moves to 12, I’m still going to pass because I’m not going to bet against the sharps who move that game.
I like to get the opening line, get it as early as possible, bet my value and then MOVE onto the next day. Sometimes I will take a look back and see if those numbers have moved but it all depends on which sport you are looking at and how much feel you have for the game.
Get the best number you can, make your numbers, make your power ratings. The stronger the power ratings, the better bet you’re going to have and the more winners you will collect. Thanks for stopping by Don Best Sports, stay tuned for more great information.