La Liga has a bit of a reputation now of being a strong league where they play good soccer and decent home grown talent gets a chance to show what it is capable of. In this instance, as seen at the World Cup, the Spanish players are capable of rather a lot and the options for betting on La Liga and the Spanish teams in Europe provides some good soccer odds.
However, La Liga has been a two horse race now for a few seasons and the 2010-11 season will not be any different. Barcelona beat Madrid to the title by just 3 points last year but were always seemingly in control conceding just 24 goals in the whole campaign. Considering they also own arguably the best player in the world in Lionel Messi, who scored 34 games for them in the league last year along with a goalkeeper who also conceded the fewest goals per games in Victor Valdes, with an average of 0.61; it is unsurprising that success came their way.
Real Madrid have long been thought of a team of individuals, the Galactico mentality overcoming any kind of team work ethic and ultimately undermining their goal of regaining the title. They do have world class players too in Gonzalo Higuain and Christiano Ronaldo, the 2nd and 3rd highest goal scorers with 27 and 26 respectively, but there was something about them that made them look 2nd best all season.
This year could be different. The Galactico players now have a Galactico manager in the form of Jose Mourinho, the self-proclaimed special one and a winner no matter where he has coached or managed. Excellent at mind games and putting the focus onto himself he will be the man to install a real work ethic into these players, meaning there will be less flair and more industry from the Madrid team.
The betting value is still with Barcelona
Will this be enough to overcome Barcelona though? In my opinion, not to mention the bookmaker's opinion, no, it won't.
Bodog have set a money line for Real Madrid at +137 while they have priced Barcelona at -175. Considering there was only a three point difference in the two teams last year, many of you may be thinking there is a bit of value about Madrid but I see them more like a +180-+200 chance and Barcelona could easily be as short as -200. There are many European soccer bookmaker's offering even shorter a price on Barcelona so the time to strike would be now.
Pep Guardiola already had a good side but has now added last year's 4th placed forward, David Villa from Valencia who is a consistent top scorer for club and country, an impressive feat considering he was never playing for one of the 'big two'.
So now he has two of the top 4 scorers, the top ranked goalkeeper in terms of goals conceded per game, Xavi who had the top number of assists with 14 and has even added a player that they really needed, a monster of a defensive midfielder in Javier Mascherano from Liverpool who was consistently highly ranked in both the pass completion and tackle completion ratio stats for, arguably, a tougher league - the EPL.
Madrid have strengthened too, have no doubts about that, but Barcelona already had a harmonious and fluid team, the majority of which playing for Spain during their victorious World Cup campaign. Looking back at the opening round of games of the new season, you see Barcelona recording a 3-0 victory away from home while Real Madrid could only muster a 0-0 draw away to Mallorca and looked largely impotent going forwards.
David Villa has a great opportunity to be the leading scorer this year but will face decent competition from Messi, Higuain and Ronaldo. Villa is a consistently high scorer in La Liga and with players like Xavi and Iniesta providing him with the bullets to shoot with, it wouldn't surprise me to see him score at a goal per game ratio. He should be no more than a +300 shot so if you can find a firm that has him at anything above this price, you will definitely be ahead of the soccer handicapper.
European domination for Spanish soccer?
Barcelona and Real Madrid also make up the top two in the betting in the Uefa Champions League priced at +250 and +450 which considering there are 32 teams still alive going into the group stages, certainly doesn't represent good value. It could certainly be that one of the two teams wins it but I would be hoping for at least +600 on any favourite at this stage of the competition.
The only other Spanish club in the competition is Valencia, priced at +6600 which is a fair reflection of their chances for the overall competition but if you look at their price to win Group C, of which they are inhabitants along with Manchester Utd, Rangers and Bursaspor, you will see it is currently +400 at Bodog, a better price than it should be. Rangers and Bursaspor don't really stand a chance and that leaves Manchester Utd to overcome to end up on top. While Manchester Utd should be strong, it is not inconceivable that Valencia could do it, making them the value bet to top the group.
In Europe's 2nd competition, the Europa League, Spain has a number of teams that could go well including last year's winners Atletico Madrid who are priced at a very favourable +1600. They have only strengthened their squad so it surprises me they are such a big price. Their true value is more around the +1200 mark.
Sevilla, Villarreal and Getafe make up the Spanish contingent and are priced at +1600, +2200 and +4000 respectively. Sevilla in particular have form in this tournament and still have the services of star strikers Freddy Kanoute and Luis Fabiano to call upon. They are in a tough group, potentially the toughest out of all groups, with Dortmund, PSG and Karpaty but the +115 for them to win the group is a fair price and. If you can find a line on individual games for Fabiano to score first then look to take any price above +350 as this guy is a goal machine and will deliver over time.
Overall, Spanish soccer's stock is on the rise as more and more teams seem to be competing at the business end of major tournaments. This could be a great time to get involved with the betting side of things as the handicapper is unlikely to pick up this surge in Spanish prominence as fast as it is happening.