If last year is anything to go by and, it most certainly is, then it should be another race to the finish for Manchester Utd and Chelsea in the Premier League. While those around them have been spending and looking to strengthen, the two front-runners have taken the more subdued approach this year of building on already strong squads mixing youth and experience along the way.
Manchester City, Arsenal, Tottenham and Liverpool will most likely be the clubs fighting them for the EPL title but there is a much bigger possibility that this quartet of clubs will fill the places between 3rd and 6th in the League. With the funds available to City they should, at least on economic terms, win this league outright, but a combination of too many new players and too many star individuals makes them a relatively unattractive prospect for the League.
The reds are going to have the blues
The 2010-11 season has been tipped by the media to be the 'most exciting yet' but in honesty it is much more likely to be another run-of-the-mill season, battled out by no more than two teams; Chelsea and Utd.
Chelsea are a massive lock to win another EPL title, following on from last year's victory over Man Utd by just 1 point but due to the early stage in the season, the betting odds are still attractive. If you can find a money line of +115-125 for the season victory then I would snap this up straight away as I believe a true value would be +100.
Last year they had 27 league wins, a win percentage of 71.05% for all games. More impressively was their home game performance with a win percentage of 89%, losing just the 1 game and drawing just the 1 game. Understandably their away from was not as strong, recording only a 53% win ratio but still losing only 5 games and drawing 4 times.
They also scored freely, notching 103 goals along the way, ending with star striker being awarded the Golden boot for being the top EPL scorer. This year they have only strengthened their attacking options and if kept injury free, I would expect another strong showing here. They also had the highest average goals per game with a ratio of 2.26.
Defensively they were sound too, making 18 shutouts during the course of the season, just one less than Man Utd. This season they have already played three games and scored 14 goals while conceding 0, giving them a goals per game average of 4.66, already up from last season's average of 2.71, so if you can find a money line on Chelsea goals or shutouts then I am expecting them to exceed last year's performance.
Interestingly there was one player last year who scored first more times than any other - Sunderland's Darren Bent. With 15 'first goals' over the season he is a great bet to do this on a regular basis. Considering he seems to score against any club, the bookmakers always seem to have him overpriced when at home against the 'big four' clubs. If you can get +500 - +700 on him scoring first, take it as he is easily a +400 shot at home, especially considering he takes all penalty kicks too.
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While Chelsea could run away with the title, there are plenty of other soccer betting markets to look at that involve the EPL teams. Bodog are running lines on the outright winner of the Carling Cup and this is a market to find a bit of value as the bigger teams, Manchester Utd, Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal, tend not to rank this competition too highly and put their energies into others.
The lines of +1200 for Tottenham Hotspur, +1600 for Aston Villa and +2200 for Birmingham City all make much more sense as these teams will have more need to focus on this trophy, obviously having no chance within the League market. All three of these teams have strong squads and the drive to win the cup and I would suggest that the soccer handicapper has overpriced it here.
Premier League betting value in Europe
The two big European cup competitions, the Champions League and the Europa league, are also priced up at Bodog and plenty of the EPL soccer clubs are featured at or near the head of the respective markets.
Chelsea, Manchester Utd and Arsenal make up 3 of the top 5 teams in the betting with Bodog offering money lines of +600, +800 and +1400 respectively. In a competition with 32 teams still alive there really isn't any value in taking on a team at any less than +600, ruling out favourites Barcelona (+250) and Real Madrid (+450).
With Man Utd drawn in the same group as Bursapor, Rangers and Valencia you have to fancy them to come out on top of the group. With an experienced Champions League squad, this could be the year that Sir Alex Ferguson has been waiting for and the +800 seems a fair reflection of this.
Arsenal also have a decent group, consisting of Braga, Partizan Belgrade and Shakhtar Donetsk, and are a lock to get through on top. With a bit of luck along the way, manager Arsene Wenger could see his team win their first silverware in 5 years and the +1400 is too big a price not to get involved with for a squad that plays beautiful and, some would say, a more continental style of football.
In the Europa League, there are still 48 teams alive and a long way to go before we know the winner. Big EPL spenders, Manchester City, are the bookmaker's favourites and are priced at +550 but this is terrible value for a 48 team tournament when they have shown no real form so far and are grouped with Juventus, former Champions of Italy.
Liverpool, the EPL's other representative in the Europa League have been priced at +1000 with Bodog and after last year's semi-final appearance, have a much better chance of success if negotiating a group including Napoli, Utrecht and Steaua Bucharest. Even so, I think the handicapper has been quite harsh here and at this stage in the tournament would suggest that +1400 would be a much truer value.
It's going to be a long and hard slog in the EPL for all teams but there is money to be made. Considering Chelsea's home win percentage last year, backing them again this year should pay dividends especially if you can get them to win the league outright. However, don't forget there are so many other markets out there that will offer more value to you involving the EPL clubs.