Week 13 NFL Picks: Bears over Lions

By: Sports Interaction | Friday, December 3, 2010
Brian Urlacher

Brian Urlacher look to build on their NFC North lead this Sunday in Detroit.

The Denver Broncos of 2010 are a little like a Megan Fox movie. Awful in nearly every respect but with one vital saving grace.

In the case of the movies, the saving grace is the fantastic Miss Fox herself, of course. In the case of the Broncos it’s Kyle Orton and the passing game – a passing game that is integral to the rationale behind the first bet of the week.

Denver is an eight point underdog at Kansas City but the real value bet here is to bet 'over' a total of 48½ points. Kansas City has been scoring a lot of points lately but the Chiefs offense is vulnerable to the pass.

Denver has the fourth ranked passing offense in the nation. This is partly because the Broncos have to pass, being behind so often, but the advantage is that it also means they can rack up scores quickly and that’s good for Over bettors. This one could go like a college game – 42-28, something like that. 'Over' 48½ total points at Sports Interaction when Denver visits Kansas City is the first bet of the week.

A game where I don’t see the scoreboard lighting up is Atlanta’s visit to Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers haven’t had any signature wins this year. Although promising, when the time has come for the Bucs to drive the blade home they’ve come up short. That said, Tampa Bay plays tough on every down and doesn’t roll over.

Atlanta is the best team in the NFC right now, but it’s not a light ‘em up team like New Orleans last year or the 16-0 Patriots. The Falcons’ first rule is not to beat themselves. So, between a Tampa Bay team that’s limited but dogged and an Atlanta team that’s talented but dogged, I don’t expect a shootout. 'Under' 44½ total points at Sports Interaction when Atlanta visits Tampa Bay is the second NFL pick of the week.

Finally, Sports Interaction had to suspend betting on Chicago at Detroit when the line was originally posted as Chicago minus 3½ because money came storming in on the Bears. That line will be reposted at minus 4 or 4½ and when it is, take it.

The Bears have arrived. Chicago’s beatdown of Philadelphia at Soldier Field last Sunday as a home underdog means that it’s time to start believing in Chicago. Mike Martz has adjusted his offense to fit the talent at his disposal and the mercurial Jay Cutler seems set to finally deliver on his promise.

The Lions won at Soldier Field in Week 1 but have devolved since – quarterback Matt Stafford is out with a shoulder injury, they can’t run the ball, the secondary is soft and the Bears will want to put the record straight after losing straight up to the Lions at home in first week of the season. Chicago minus 4-4½ at Detroit with Sports Interaction is the third pick of the week.

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