Giants vs. Patriots is a big deal not only in the Big Apple, Boston, Providence and other “home” cities for the teams involved, as well as Indianapolis, the host city. But no locale has embraced the Super Bowl like Las Vegas. It’s the biggest week of the year in town, not just for the sports books, but for the entire hotel industry.
LVH Superbook Director Jay Kornegay recently related the impact of the game, not only at his property, but at others across town.
"This is not only the biggest week of the year at the sports books," said Kornegay while guesting with us last Friday on Brian Blessing’s SportsBook Radio show on 920 AM in Las Vegas, "but it’s also the biggest week for the card dealers, waiters, waitresses, maitre d’s, you name it. They all want to make sure they are working during Super Bowl week when the business is always good."
What Kornegay and the other sports book directors also occupy themselves with at this time of year is the expansive list of Super Bowl proposition bets. The myriad of props at LVH – a dizzying array totaling over 300 – was finally made available last Friday, the culmination of several all-night cram sessions over the previous few days. Although the sports book staffs begin making preliminary preparations for the props weeks in advance, they can’t really begin to sink their teeth into any specific matchups until the conference championship games are complete.
At many properties, Tuesday is the all-day affair for the sports book staff to hammer out the specific props, but there’s a careful process before those numbers are available to the clientele.
"It takes a little while, because we’re double and triple-checking all of the numbers," said Kornegay, whose wide range of props are regarded as the industry standard.
The props have become such a big deal at LVH and other major sports books in town that an early glimpse at the numbers is almost akin to the Clarence Beeks character getting his hands on the crop reports before anyone else in the classic Trading Places movie.
Indeed, the Super Bowl proposition bets have taken on a life of their own over the years. Although English soccer fans are used to all sorts of “proposition” wagers for each and every game in the Premier League and other levels of “proper” football, such stat props are more rare for wagering opportunities in American football. Unless, of course, we’re talking about the Super Bowl.
Veteran prop followers, however, have a few suggestions, or cautions, regarding proposition wagers for the Super Bowl, which represents a new territory for most wagerers who focus most of their time on sides and totals during the regular season and playoffs.
1) Be wary of thinking that 'over' on most of the statistical props is a good wager. The knee-jerk reaction by most when they see the props is to believe that most of them will exceed or go 'over' whatever the posted number, especially on player stat props.
Keep in mind, however, that most props are completely stat-driven, with the books merely taking a statistical model and adjusting the percentages slightly (when warranted). There is rarely going to be a definitive “stat edge” for the player props in the Super Bowl.
2) Focus on the game first, and how you see it progressing, and try to fit in some of the prop wagers that might be consistent with how you perceive the flow of the game. If expecting a taut, lower-scoring affair, perhaps shade some of the props that reflect a defensive battle. On the other hand, if you foresee a shootout, shade the props that support a higher-scoring game and more yardage.
We are humored by many Las Vegas sorts who become very cocksure of themselves regarding their recommendations on Super Bowl props, especially since this is the only American football game of the year where such an expansive list of proposition bets is available. Nonetheless, we think there are a few props worth considering. Having said that, however, we think the following props might offer some value:
1) Defensive or special teams touchdowns: Yes +145, No -175. Consider that there have been special teams or defensive touchdowns in four of the last five Super Bowls, and the history of the game is replete with many such big plays. Ironically, the only one of the last five “Supes” without a defensive or special teams TD was the last time the Giants met the Patriots, in Super Bowl XLII four years ago in Glendale, Arizona.
2) In which half will more points be scored: First half +½ point, -120; Second half and overtime, -½, -110. Series history between these sides suggests to look at the second half/overtime combo as the recommendation here. Remember, Super Bowl XLII was 7-3 entering the fourth quarter four years ago before 21 points were scored in the final frame. And in this season’s regular-season meeting between the G-Men and Pats at Foxborough, the score was nil-nil at halftime.
3) First score of game: Touchdown -190, Field goal or safety +160. Getting a near 2/1 price on the first score of the game being a field goal seems decent value to us. The first score was also a field goal when these teams met Nov. 6 at Foxborough.
4) Different Players to have a passing attempt: Over 2½, +250; Under 2½, -330. This might not be a bad “bomber” on the 'over,' especially if one trick play (halfback option pass, fake punt or the like) is attempted. Then, it’s a winner. Also, if either staring QB is skaken up for even a short while, a backup could throw a pass. And, in the unlikelihood of a one-sided affair, a backup QB could get a chance to play in the final minutes. Not the worst longshot prop on the card.
Again, there are myriad player stat props as well, but we would suggest going back to our “first” number two point above; if you’re thinking this game might be lower-scoring and feature defense, shade some of the 'under' stat props; if you’re thinking it’s going to be a shootout, shade some of the 'over' stat props.
Or, just sit back and enjoy you wager on either the Giants, Patriots, or perhaps the “total” as well. No matter what, good luck, and enjoy Giants-Patriots!