The pointspread for Super Bowl XVLI between the New England Patriots and New York Giants has been moving in the Giants’ direction as a lot people feel the matchups are to their advantage.
New York is now available at +2½ at some shops after opening as 3-3½ point underdogs. The total has stayed pretty steady at 55 points.
When New England passes the ball
Quarterback Tom Brady threw for 5,235 yards in the regular season and 602 more in two playoff games, but it’s no secret he struggles against strong pass rushes. His three lowest quarterback ratings this year have come against the Cowboys, Giants and Ravens, all ranked in the top-7 in the league in sacks.
Brady’s three main targets are receiver Wes Welker and tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. Gronkowski suffered a high ankle sprain against Baltimore last week and could be severely hampered. The Giants will stack the middle of the field and force Brady to throw outside to Deion Branch. Chad Ochocinco still has the speed to go deep, but caught 15 balls all year and there’s no guarantee he’ll even be active.
Summary: New England is predicted to score about 29 points with the team favored by three and the total at 55. Brady will need to be interception-free for that to happen and make several great plays in the face of a very good Giants pass rush.
When New England runs the ball
New England ranked 20th in run offense during the regular season (110.3 YPG), while the Giants were 19th in run defense (121.3 YPG). The Patriots have a promising rookie in Stevan Ridley, but he was inactive last game due to fumbling concerns and that leaves just BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead.
The Giants allowed 120.3 YPG on the ground in playoff wins over Atlanta, Green Bay and San Francisco. However, that number drops to 84.3 YPG without the scrambling of quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers and Alex Smith, something they won’t have to worry about with the slow-footed Brady.
Summary: Green-Ellis never fumbles and had a tough 68 yards on 15 carries in the AFC title game. The Patriots need to be patient offensively and run the ball when the Giants drop into dime coverage and dare them to run. New England needs over 100 rushing yards to win this game.
When New York passes the ball
Quarterback Eli Manning backed up his statement that he’s an ‘elite’ quarterback by throwing for 4,933 yards in the regular season (92.9 QB rating) and adding six, fourth quarter comebacks. The postseason numbers are even better with 308 YPG, eight TDs and just one interception (103.1 rating).
Manning has three very good receivers in Hakeem Nicks, Mario Manningham and Victor Cruz. Nicks is dealing with a shoulder issue, but is not listed on the injury report. The Patriots pass defense ranked 31st in the regular season (294 YPG) and while they have been better in the postseason, playing the inaccurate Tim Tebow helped. Manningham was almost giddy at the thought of converted receiver Julian Edelman guarding him this Sunday.
Summary: Coach Bill Belichick needs to come up with a scheme to confuse Manning, but that is easier said than done. The Giants’ receivers against the Patriots’ cover guys of Sterling Moore, Kyle Arrington, Edelman etc. is the biggest matchup advantage on either side. Expect a big day for the Giants signal caller.
When New York runs the ball
New York ranked dead-last in run offense during the regular season (89.2 YPG), while New England was 17th in run defense (117.1 YPG).
Both teams have been much better in the playoffs. The Giants are at 117.3 YPG and have increased their yards per attempt from 3.5 to 4.2. Ahmad Bradshaw is playing through a foot injury and will be the main back with some help from big Brandon Jacobs. New England has allowed 130 YPG to Denver and Baltimore this postseason, but just 3.6 yards per rush compared to 4.6 in the regular season.
Summary: This is not a big matchup advantage for either team. The Giants want to run the ball enough to keep the Patriots defense honest and free up play-action for Manning. New England’s unit seems to be peaking behind Vince Wilfork and should do a solid job.
Special Teams, Coaching and Intangibles
Special teams are always the big x-factor. The Giants likely would have lost the NFC title game to San Fran if not for two punt return fumbles. New England fumbled on a kick return last game that almost proved costly. Barring a turnover though, the special teams matchup this week is a push.
Looking at intangibles, the Giants are more battle hardened having won road playoff game at Green Bay and San Francisco, who were a combined 16-1 at home beforehand. The Patriots got to play both their playoff games at Foxborough and it’s hard to imagine them beating the Ravens if that game was away.
The coaches are both old school and former members of Bill Parcells’ Giants staff. Belichick does get the overall coaching nod, especially with two weeks to prepare. He also rarely loses to a team twice in the same season and the Giants won 24-20 on the road in November. However, coach Tom Coughlin is a very good game-planner in his own right and has more overall talent to work with.
Legacies are also on the line with Belichick trying to tie Chuck Noll for most Super Bowl wins as a coach. Brady is trying to match Terry Bradshaw and Joe Montana for most wins by a quarterback. Coach Coughlin and Manning would also each get into rarified air with their second Super Bowl ring.
Finally, the elephant in the room is the Patriots trying to get revenge for the Super Bowl loss to the Giants four years ago that ruined their perfect season. Belichick and company won’t acknowledge it as a factor, but it certainly is one. The question is whether they can overcome their matchup disadvantage to get it done.