The Washington Redskins are expected to be shorthanded in two key positions when they host the powerful New England Patriots on Sunday afternoon.
CBS will broadcast at 1:00 p.m. (ET) from FedExField. Washington has opened between 7 ½-9 point home ‘dogs with a total of 47 ½-48.
The Redskins (4-8 straight up, 5-7 against the spread) got some bad news Monday as starting tight end Fred Davis and left tackle Trent Williams will almost definitely be suspended the final four games due to recreational substance abuse during the lockout. They could have been suspended a year as repeat offenders, but it was negotiated down.
Coach Mike Shanahan can’t be happy about losing two of his best offensive players, but at least he knows it won’t affect next season. Washington has already sealed its fate this year with a current 1-7 SU streak (2-6 ATS) after a promising start (3-1 SU and ATS).
Davis leads the team with 796 receiving yards and is third among all tight ends. He had 99 yards last Sunday in a 34-19 home loss to the Jets as 3-point ‘dogs. That game was a lot closer than the score indicates with Washington actually leading 16-13 with under five minutes remaining.
The late barrage of points helped go ‘over’ the 38 ½-point total. The ‘over’ is 3-0 in the Redskins' last three games after the ‘under’ was 7-1 in the previous eight. Streaky quarterback Rex Grossman has just a 69.8 QB rating (ranked 29th), but does have two 95-plus efforts in the four games since regaining the starting job from John Beck on Nov. 13.
Grossman has been battling a shoulder injury, but it’s his non-throwing arm. That gives him no excuse after going 19-of-46 (41.3 percent) last week and it won’t help that Davis is out. Fellow tight end Chris Cooley (hand)) is already gone for the season and former Patriot Jabar Gaffney (665 yards) and Santana Moss (372 yards) are average weapons on the outside.
Rookie running back Roy Helu has been a bright spot the last two weeks (208 total rushing yards) despite a lost fumble versus the Jets. He’ll continue to get the ball, but even Grossman’s eyes must be lighting up after just watching Indianapolis journeyman Dan Orlvosky throw for 353 yards against New England’s last-ranked pass defense (310 YPG).
New England (9-3 straight-up, 7-5 against the spread) has won four games in a row, but saw a 3-game cover streak end with a 31-24 win over Indy as whopping 20 ½-point favorites.
That was the highest pointspread in the league since 2007 when quarterback Tom Brady and company were more than 20-point favorites three times (going 0-3 ATS). The Patriots led the Colts 31-3 in the fourth quarter, but lost their concentration, getting outscored 21-0.
Quarterback Tom Brady can’t be blamed after having 10 TDs and no interceptions over the last four games (team scoring 35 PPG). He would have had another touchdown to tight end Rob Gronkowski, but it was ruled a lateral and a 2-yard rushing score.
Coach Bill Belichick will certainly use the fourth-quarter collapse as a motivational tool this week. After all, Indianapolis is almost trying to lose games (hello Andrew Luck) at 0-12 SU and was 0-7 ATS in its prior seven before Sunday.
Washington’s defense is far superior to Indianapolis and ranks ninth in the league in total yards (325.3 YPG). Strong safety LaRon Landry (groin) was out last week and is questionable for Sunday.
New England will certainly try to spread out the Redskins defense and have Brady identify the mismatches with Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez and Wes Welker. Brady has struggled this year against the better pass rushing teams (Giants, Steelers, Cowboys) and Washington is tied-for-fifth with 33 sacks.
The Patriots defense ‘is what it is’ at this point. It gives up a ton of yards to almost everyone, although is better limiting points. Cornerback Devin McCourty (shoulder) returned last week after missing two games, but he continues to struggle and the overall man-to-man defense is terrible.
Look for Grossman to take several deep shots down the field with Moss, especially without Davis available. Having safety Patrick Chung (foot) back to patrol the middle of the field would help, but he’s questionable after missing the last four games.
These teams have only met four times since 1990. New England won 52-7 at home back in 2007 as 15-point favorites.
New England is 4-2 SU and ATS away this season. Washington has lost its last four home games (1-3 ATS), although is still giving a good effort.
Weather is expected to be sunny, but high temperatures reaching just the mid-40s.