As usual, the question regarding the annual NFL Pro Bowl game is if there are any meaningful trends or angles or other information that be accurately gleaned before kickoff, and factored into a viable wagering proposition.
And, as always, we’re not sure.
The specifics of the matchup are the easiest to understand. The all-stars from the AFC and NFC, minus any members of the Super Bowl participants Patriots and Giants, will square off Saturday at Honolulu’s Aloha Stadium. Las Vegas wagering outlets have posted the NFC as anywhere from 3½-4 point favorites, with the total at a Mid-American Conference-like 72½-73½, depending upon the sports book. Kickoff time will be 7:00 p.m. (EST), with TV coverage provided by NBC.
It is best to remember that this is a true exhibition game, and not at all like NFL preseason games, wherein players are often battling to make rosters and impress coaching staffs. But the main objective of the Pro Bowl game, above everything else, is for players to avoid injury, which is why so many "special" rules are implemented for this game only. They include:
- No motion or shifting by the offense; offense must have a tight end in all formations
- The offense can’t have three receivers on a side
- Intentional grounding is legal
- Defenses must run a 4-3 at all times, blitzing is not allowed and there is no rushing a punt, PAT or field goal attempt
- No press coverage except inside the 5-yard line
It’s too bad San Francisco’s Jim Harbaugh isn’t coaching the NFC side, because we would have loved to have seen him try to bend those restrictions wherever possible. Instead, Green Bay’s Mike McCarthy will lead the NFC team, opposed by Houston’s Gary Kubiak from the AFC.
Given those parameters, we’re not analyzing a normal football game. And perhaps it is no wonder that so many recent Pro Bowls have ended up as shootouts. We’ve seen scorelines such as 55-41, 41-34, 42-30, 38-37, 55-52, 45-20. 38-30 and 51-31 over the past decade in Pro Bowls. Moreover, the overall standings of the Pro Bowl since the merger note the NFC with 21 wins, and the AFC with 20, about as evenly divided on the results side as possible.
There was a time when Pro Bowls were regarded more seriously by the players, obviously in the years when the extra paychecks, however limited, were especially valued by the participants. The winning share was greater than the losing share, which meant something in those days and motivated the players greatly in the 1950s, ‘60s and even into the ‘70s. The monetary incentive was real in those days. And many all-time greats, such as the great Jim Brown, always spoke reverentially about the Pro Bowl experience.
And, after the AFL-NFL merger in 1970, Pro Bowls took on an extra edge for several years, or as long as former AFL stars continued to make the Pro Bowl roster. Once they began to retire, however, and the delineations between the old AFL and NFL became blurred or faded, there was little extra added spice to the proceedings.
Where, then, do we rank the NFL Pro Bowl alongside other major All-Star games in other sports? Here is our list.
1) MLB All-Star Game
No surprise here, as baseball’s All-Star Game has a true identity of its own. Despite the onset of interleague play in the late ‘90s, the two leagues have still maintained their own separate identities, a key in maintaining fan interest for the event. Although we don’t much care for the home-field World Series gimmick introduced by Bud Selig and friends a few years ago, the baseball version is still miles ahead of those played by the other sports.
The result continues to mean something to the fans in the annual midsummer classic, even without the artificial postseason reward.
(We also think the fact the baseball All Stars wear the team’s uniforms in the game puts it on a different fan level than the other sports; we suspect if Major League Baseball decided to dress up its All Stars in the same uniforms, the game would not have near the appeal. Nothing scientific about that observation, it’s just a "gut feel" on our part.)
2) NHL All-Star Game
One of the main problems of the NHL All-Star Game is that through years of conference and division shifting by the teams, there are no long-standing or identifiable rivalries to market (or exploit) in the current set-up. In that regard, the NHL version lags behind the other major sports, which have at least kept something of the same structure in their conference and division lineups throughout the decades. But the NHL’s game itself might be the best of all the All-Star attractions.
Although the dynamics (not much defense, no set plays, lots of one-on-one action) of the hockey version are much like those in the NBA All-Star Game, unlike the NBA All-Star game it never seems as if the NHL players are taking it easy it in their All-Star game, which appears to be a more-exciting version of a regular-season or playoff game. Indeed, recent NHL All-Star games have featured scores of 12-9, 8-7, 12-11 and 11-10, making us wonder what happens to all of that wonderful goalkeeping we see during the rest of the season. The NHL has the All-Star game in perspective, however, skipping it entirely in years where there is a Winter Olympics, when the entire league shuts down for up to two weeks.
3) NBA All-Star Game
We actually think the NBA All-Star Game has grown up in recent years, because the players and (mainly) media have stopped taking the event so seriously and finally accepted the full array of weekend activities as pure exhibition and a big midseason party for the whole league. The skills competition (dunks, three-pointers, and now H-O-R-S-E) the night before the actual game are still the best of that genre (slightly besting MLB’s Home Run Derby and further ahead of the NHL’s variety of skill events). The dunk contest, in particular, remains an attraction-generating, if rather overhyped, spectacle.
Other events, like the "Freshmen vs. Sophomores" game, and to a lesser extent the Oldtimers Game (though that one is kind of cool) are a bit overdone. And it is hard to take the game itself too seriously when too often the players seem to be going at half-speed and spend time kibitzing and joking with one another. Compared to the MLB and NHL versions, where the players really seem to try hard and somewhat care about the result, the NBA All-Star Game falls behind.
4) NFL Pro Bowl
At one time (especially in the years right after the AFL-NFL merger in 1970, as mentioned above), this was actually a heated battle. But as those interleague battle lines softened, so too did the emphasis on the Pro Bowl, which now has a large portion of the competitive aspects of the game removed because of specific rule requirements as we alluded to earlier. Even moving the Pro Bowl to the week before the Super Bowl, there is still an anti-climactic feel to this exercise. The schedule change has helped TV ratings incrementally, but the quality of the on-field product has not been significantly improved.
Further, there have already been 22 replacement players named for those originally named to this year’s Pro Bowl rosters, which for obvious reasons will not include Patriots or Giants players. Indeed, the latest roster switches involve QBs Tom Brady and Eli Manning, who have been replaced by a pair of rookies, Cincinnati’s Andy Dalton and Carolina’s Cam Newton.
So, this year’s Pro Bowl could well be decided by a couple of first-year quarterbacks, in a game in which players from both sides will be trying not to get hurt.
Maybe they should just make the Pro Bowl a flag football game instead.