San Francisco 49ers Without Equal In NFC West

A year ago at this time, the NFC West not only looked like the weakest division in the league, but also the most wide-open.  So much so, in fact, that the St. Louis Rams were a chic pick to win the division.

And why not?  In the previous 2010 season, not one NFC West rep finished as good as .500.  If you recall, Seattle won the division with a sparkling 7-9 record.

Indeed, if there were ever room for a team to emerge, it was in last year’s NFC West.  And one team did, although few could see what was coming with the San Francisco 49ers, who had an easier time of it than did Secretariat at the 1973 Belmont.  By the time the dust had cleared, San Francisco had won the West by a staggering five games, its 13-3 mark almost lapping the rest of the field.  The 49ers had the division effectively clinched by Halloween in one of the great post-merger runaways in pro football annals.

Now, the question for 2012 is if any among the Cardinals, Seahawks or even the Rams are up to challenging the 49ers.

Las Vegas oddsmakers are not holding their breath, as San Francisco, along with Houston in the AFC South, rates as the most-prohibitive division favorite in the league, priced at 2/5 to successfully defend the West crown.  Those looking to take a shot with more appealing prices can back Seattle (9/2), Arizona (13/2) or St. Louis (12/1) if they wish.

Nevada wagering outlets also suspect the 49ers are the only NFC West side with a hint of a chance to make a run in the postseason.  Only Green Bay has a lower price than San Francisco (13/2) to win the conference title, and the 49ers are also priced behind only the Pack (and alongside the Eagles at most Vegas and Northern Nevada sports books) among potential NFC Super Bowl winners at 12/1.

The bold among you can find NFC win prices on the Seahawks at 33/1, Cardinals at 35/1 and Rams at 60/1.  The extremely brave might can pick among bomber Super Bowl prices for Seattle at 60/1, Arizona at 66/1 and St. Louis at 100/1.

Thus, the question for the NFC West in 2012 is if anyone is up to challenging San Francisco, and perhaps making the sort of run from nowhere that the 49ers did a year ago, or if the 49ers might fall back to the pack.  The most encouragement we can provide the non-San Francisco entries in the division is a weak maybe on both counts.

Following are quick team-by-team previews, along with season-win prices listed at the introduction of each team.

San Francisco (season-win total 10)
Maybe Jim Harbaugh knows what he’s doing.  After all, making a lower-division powerhouse out of the University of San Diego, and then turning Stanford from a 1-11 mess into a BCS bowl winner in four seasons made taking the 49ers to the playoffs a year ago look like a walk in the park. In retrospect, perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised that San Francisco won so big a year ago.

Harbaugh inherited a playoff-quality defense from the Mike Singletary regime.  Unfortunately for 49ers fans, Singletary’s ideas for offense were borrowed from Woody Hayes and Bo Schembechler.  Tweaking the strike force and acting as a mentor for much-criticized QB Alex Smith, Harbaugh was able to alter the attack end formula to allow the 49ers to dominate their division and come agonizingly close to their first Super Bowl visit in 17 years.  The 20-17 overtime loss to the Giants in the NFC title game still stings in the Bay Area.

Still, the “O” runs behind the “D” in San Francisco, and to that end Harbaugh set about upgrading the attack in the offseason.  Feature picks in the draft focused upon offense; first-round pick WR A.J. Jenkins (Illinois) and RB LaMichael James (Oregon) will have chances to contribute right away, with James a potential added threat on kick return units alongside Ted Ginn, Jr.

Key free-agent additions also focused upon skill-position offensive upgrades.  From the Giants come beastly RB Brandon Jacobs and big-play WR Mario Manningham whose 4th-quarter TD put the G-Men in front in the conference title game last January; from the ranks of inactivity comes WR Randy Moss, a can’t-lose gamble with lots of upside and no real downside risk for Harbaugh.

The additions of Jacobs, and to a lesser extent rookie RB LaMichael James, are important in that they lessen the burden on RB Frank Gore (1,211 yards rushing in 2011), a force when healthy but injury-prone throughout his career; the Niner rush offense tailed off last season when Gore went down.  Along with holdover Kendall Hunter, Harbaugh now has admirable backfield depth.  The power-run component which fueled last year’s strike force (and ranked 8th in NFL rush stats) should be formidable once more.

Meanwhile, Alex Smith remains at the controls of offensive coordinator Greg Roman’s West Coast looks, although the Niners considered making a run at Peyton Manning in the offseason.  Smith proved more than serviceable a year ago and figures to benefit from the same offensive system and coordinator being in place for two straight years for the first time in his S.F. career which  began in 2005.

About the only questions we have regarding what was the NFC’s top defense in 2011 (only 308 yards and 14.3 point per game) is if the 49ers avoid injuries as they did a year ago.  Only seven starts total (four by FS Dashon Goldson, two by LB Patrick Willis and one by DE Ray McDonald) were missed by last year’s starters, many of whom enjoyed career years, especially OLBs NaVorro Bowman and Ahmad Brooks in defensive coordinator Vic Fangio’s version of the 3-4.

The 49ers also forced 38 turnovers that were converted into 108 points.  This again looks to be the best stop unit in the NFC.  And with special teams (featuring PK David Akers and kick returners Ginn and now LaMichael James) also perhaps the best in the conference, it would be a stunner if San Francisco doesn’t repeat.

Harbaugh also posted a 12-5-1 spread mark in 2011, and was 8-0-1 vs. the line at home until the nail-biter in the NFC title game.  Exceeding 10 wins looks like a safe assumption.

Seattle (season-win total 7)
If any side is to make a serious run at the 49ers, some believe it could be Pete Carroll’s Seattle, stuck on a 7-9 treadmill the past two seasons.

The difference between 2010 and 2011 was that seven wins proved good enough to win the division two years ago, but put the Seahawks six games behind the 49ers last season.  That and a new set of uniforms, deeper blue in hue and with a new “wolf grey” added to the color mix.

Sensing he desperately needed an upgrade at QB, Carroll made a belated attempt at luring Peyton Manning in the offseason (which was summarily rejected by the ex-Colt and new Bronco QB) before opting for Plan B in free agency, former Packers backup Matt Flynn.  This might seem a bit of deja vu for the Seahawks, who similarly liberated Matt Hasselbeck from his bullpen duties at Lambeau Field several years ago.

Flynn, who led LSU to a BCS title in 2007 and was an effective reliever for Aaron Rodgers the past few seasons, started the preseason opener vs. Tennessee and appears destined to hold off returnee Tarvaris Jackson and Wisconsin rookie Russell Wilson for the starting spot in the September 9 opener at Arizona.  Wilson, however, has impressed mightily in OTAs and early in training camp, and flashed his playmaking bent in the preseason opener vs. the Titans.  Watch his progress closely.

The Seahawks kept leading rusher Marshawn Lynch (1,204 yards rushing in 2011) in the fold, but Carroll and offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell would rather not subject the ex-Cal star to anything close to his career-high 285 carries from last season and have added muscle-bound Utah State rookie RB Robert Turbin to lighten Lynch’s the workload.

The concerns for the offense revolve mostly around the passing game and the quality of receivers at Flynn’s disposal.  Concerned that keeping Sidney Rice (who missed seven games last fall) in a healthy state might be difficult, Carroll gambled by adding diva-like Terrell Owens in early August.  Owens and another reclamation project, TE Kellen Winslow, might be called upon to upgrade the pass-catching options for Flynn or whomever plays QB.

Carroll’s stop unit added more speed a year ago and improved to ninth in NFL total defense stats and appears to have done the same in the offseason, especially in the draft when adding speed-based options such as DE Bruce Irvin (1st round- West Virginia), MLB Bobby Wagner (2nd round-Utah State) and OLB Korey Toomer (5th round-Idaho).

Irvin is only part of a defensive line upgrade that also included adding free agent DT Jason Jones from the Titans.  Along with re-signing DE Red Bryant, Seattle’s front four should have a robust look, also featuring holdovers DT Brandon Mebane and DE Chris Clemons.

There are concerns in the LB crew, however, after last year’s platoon leader, MLB David Hawthorne, left in free agency to the Saints.  Carroll hoped to fill the gap by signing another ex-Titan, Barrett Ruud, in his place, although Rudd endured an injury-plagued campaign a year ago in Nashville.  Meanwhile, the secondary, rebuilt last season, retains much the same look when Stanford rookie Richard Sherman emerged as an unlikely force late in the season and enters 2012 as the projected starter at the LCB spot.

Spread-wise, note that Carroll has made Century Link Field a nice fortress, as the Seahawks enter 2012 having covered nine of their last 11 home games.  The schedule is difficult, but a case can be made for the Seahawks exceeding the 7-win total if Flynn (or Russell Wilson) provides an upgrade at QB.

Arizona (season-win total 7)
One wonders if head coach Ken Whisenhunt might start feeling some heat at U of P Stadium if the Big Red can’t crack .500 for the third straight year this fall.  The Kurt Warner years are looking further and further back in the rear-view mirror, and team prexy Michael Bidwill could be getting antsy if the Cards fall out of playoff contention again.

“Coach Wiz” made a big gamble before last season when signing ex-Eagle QB Kevin Kolb to a mega-bucks deal, but Kolb was unconvincing in an injury-marred 2011 campaign.  Ex-Fordham QB John Skelton finished the season at the controls of the attack and indeed led a late push that included a 5-1 mark in the last six games and getting the Big Red to .500 (8-8) when the season concluded.

Indicating some dissatisfaction with Kolb, Whisenhunt made a spirited run at Peyton Manning in the offseason, only to finish second behind Denver in that derby.  Kolb is thus likely to have one more shot this fall, although he’s already been banged up in the preseason (chest/ribs injury in New Orleans opener) and could be supplanted by Skelton at a moment’s notice.

Are Kolb and/or Skelton at QB enough for Arizona to challenge the 49ers and get back into the playoff equation?

There are no shortage of receiving targets for the QBs, not with WR nonpareil Larry Fitzgerald (another 80 catches last season) now complemented by Notre Dame’s field-distorting first-round choice Michael Floyd, who in theory could make it more difficult for foes to gang up on Fitzgerald.  The infantry should be serviceable if ex-Ohio State RB Beanie Wells can stay healthy, although there are some concerns on the line, where LT Levi Brown was not re-signed and where Ole Miss rookie Bobby Massie could start at RT, meaning there could be new faces at the bookend line positions this fall.

It took a while for the Cards to adjust to defensive coordinator Ray Horton’s new Steeler-like 3-4 schemes last fall, perhaps because the summer lockout prevented them from digesting the new looks.  Later last season, however, several defenders began to flourish, and all starters return from a year ago.

Spread-wise, note that the Cards have had trouble lately away from the desert, just 6-13 vs. the line away from home since late in the 2009 campaign.  Arizona was also 'over' 10-5-1 a year ago.

The Cardinals can exceed those seven wins and perhaps make a playoff push if the QB play can upgrade from a year ago.  If it doesn’t, Whisenhunt could be in some trouble.

St. Louis (season-win total 6)
After being a team du jour entering last season after an unexpected playoff push in 2010, the Rams collapsed, their season effectively sidetracked by mid-September following early injuries to RB Steven Jackson and WR Danny Amendola.  Adding in nagging hurts suffered by second-year QB Sam Bradford, and the Rams’ offense effectively disappeared.  Only a midseason upset over New Orleans and a subsequent 1-point win at Cleveland spared the Rams from a winless season, which marked the end of the Steve Spagnuolo coaching era at Edward Jones Dome.

Arriving to save the day in the offseason was ex-Titans head coach Jeff Fisher, although his regime was dealt an early blow when defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, lured from New Orleans, was suspended by the league for his connection to the Bounty-gate scandal in New Orleans.  Fisher will be working with a consortium of defensive assistants to coordinate the stop unit in Williams’ absence.

New offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer will be trying to implement a pro-style offense with West Coast concepts that theoretically should suit Bradford’s passing accuracy and Jackson’s running style.  But this will be Bradford’s third different offensive system in three years, so enthusiasm should be tempered.

The “D” was poor last season and didn’t look much better in the preseason opener at Indy, a 38-3 loss in Andrew Luck’s first game as the Colts’ starting QB.  The Rams will be counting upon rookies such as DE Michael Brockers (first-round pick from LSU) and CB Janoris Jenkins (ex-Florida and North Alabama) to step in immediately alongside vets such as DE Chris Long, MLB James Laurinaitis and S Quentin Micelle. Ex-Titan CB Cortland Finnegan also arrived in free-agency to solidify the secondary.

The Rams, just 3-13 vs. the number last season on top of the 2-14 SU mark, would seem hard-pressed to exceed that six-win total.

Follow each of the division previews throughout the preseason here at Don Best: AFC East ... NFC East ... AFC North ... NFC North ... AFC South ... NFC South ... AFC West ... NFC West