Costly fumbles have Laurence Maroney in Bill Belichick's doghouse.
The New England Patriots will have a whole new offensive look after the devastating Week 17 injury to receiver Wes Welker. The Patriots play host to the Baltimore Ravens in a Sunday playoff game.
New England (10-6 straight-up, 8-7-1 against the spread) is a 3 ½-point favorite at most offshore sports books, with a total of 43 points.
The Patriots are a perfect 8-0 SU at home this year and 5-3 ATS.
Welker, the NFL leader in receptions with 123, is out at least until the beginning of next season with torn knee ligaments. Rookie Julian Edelman will step in as the slot receiver, but he can’t make up for Welker’s production.
The Patriots will run the ball more with veterans Sammy Morris and Fred Taylor and possibly Laurence Maroney. Maroney, the team’s leading rusher with 757 yards, is in coach Bill Belichick’s doghouse after a goal line fumble against Jacksonville two weeks ago.
When quarterback Tom Brady does go back to throw, he’ll likely find Randy Moss double-teamed on the outside. Third and fourth receivers, Sam Aiken and Isaiah Stanback, can easily be handled in man-to-man coverage.
Brady has excelled in prior years without a star-studded receiving core, but he’s gotten quite accustomed to relying on Moss and Welker. Expect to see more passes going to tight ends Ben Watson and Chris Baker, plus the running backs out of the backfield.
Belichick is the master motivator, with three Super Bowl rings to back up his prickly behavior. He refused to address the Welker situation this week, saying he’s focused only on the postseason and Baltimore.
The Patriots are 8-0 SU in home playoff games under Belichick. They went 4-1-1 ATS in the first six, but failed to ‘cover’ in 2007 as 13 ½-point ‘chalk’ over Jacksonville (31-20), and 14-point ‘chalk’ over San Diego (21-12).
New England’s defense is ranked fifth in the league in points allowed (17.8 PPG). That helped the ‘under’ go 5-1 in the last six games. The one ‘over’ was last week’s 34-27 loss at Houston. New England didn’t have a lot to play for in that game, and it showed.
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The ‘under’ is 6-2-1 in home playoff games under Belichick, and 11-2-1 in New England’s last 14 home playoff games overall.
The Ravens (9-7 SU, 8-7-1 ATS) are a dangerous playoff team. They’re ranked fifth in the league in both rushing offense (137.5 YPG) and defense (93.3 YPG).
Baltimore’s weakest area statistically is the passing game (213.7 YPG, ranked 18th). However, quarterback Joe Flacco stands strong in the pocket, and he’s capable of making big plays down the field. Flacco has been sacked 36 times, sixth most in the NFL, but New England’s defense only has 31 sacks (ranked 23rd).
Flacco threw for 264 yards and two touchdowns in the Oct. 4 meeting in Foxboro. The Ravens lost 27-21 as one-point dogs, getting stopped at the New England 14-yard line with 28 seconds remaining.
The Ravens are 0-5 SU (1-4 ATS) lifetime against the Patriots. They’re 0-3 ATS in New England. However, the squad feels confident after out-gaining the Pats in total yards (363-319) in the October meeting.
Baltimore is 3-5 SU on the road this year and 3-4-1 ATS. Two of those SU wins were against lowly Cleveland and Oakland. The only road win against a quality opponent was at San Diego back on Sep. 20.
New England has a couple of other injury notes besides Welker. Defensive linemen Vince Wilfork (foot) and Ty Warren (ankle) have both been upgraded to probable. Baltimore linebacker Tavares Gooden is questionable with a groin injury.
Weather is expected to clear and in the 20s, but each team is physical and plays well in the cold. CBS will have the broadcast at 10:00 a.m. (PT).