The New England Patriots have already clinched the AFC East Division and are looking for a whole lot more when they host the Miami Dolphins on Saturday afternoon.
The spread for this Week 16 contest has just opened and New England is a 10½-point favorite with an NFL betting total of 48½-points.
CBS will have the broadcast at 1:00 p.m. (ET) from Gillette Stadium. There are 13 games on Saturday with Christmas falling on Sunday. The only game on Sunday will be Chicago at the formerly perfect Packers at night.
The Patriots (11-3 straight up, 8-6 against the spread) can get the AFC’s No. 2 seed and a bye by winning their last two games. Next week will be home to Buffalo as big ‘chalk’ again. They can get the top seed by winning out and one loss by Pittsburgh in its final three games, including tonight at San Fran as 3-point ‘dogs.
Coach Bill Belichick’s bunch has quietly won six games in a row, stopping Tim Tebow-mania for at least one week with a 41-23 win as 7-point favorites. Denver jumped out to a 16-7 lead, but had three costly fumbles in the second quarter and trailed 27-16 at halftime.
Tebow actually looked pretty good passing with 194 yards, rushing for 93 more. Tom Brady was his normal brilliant self with 320 passing yards, 129 of them to tight end Aaron Hernandez. The offense is scoring 35.8 PPG during the current winning streak (31.2 PPG for the season) and certainly can’t be afforded gift turnovers.
The 64 combined points scored last game went way ‘over’ the 47½-point total. The ‘over’ is 4-0 in the Patriots last four games, with the defense allowing 23.5 PPG.
The Patriots are 5-1 SU and 3-3 ATS at home, only covering one of their last four. The last one at Gillette was on December 4, a 31-24 win over Indianapolis as whopping 20½-point favorites. The Colts outscored them 21-0 in the fourth quarter for the unlikely cover.
Miami (5-9 SU, 7-6-1 ATS) fired coach Tony Sparano last week and named Todd Bowles as interim coach. The 48-year-old Bowles may have little shot of getting the full time gig, but he still wants to impress owner Stephen Ross and did get a win (30-23) in his debut at Buffalo yesterday.
That game was not as close as the final score indicates, leading 30-13 with under three minutes remaining. Quarterback Matt Moore shook off a head/neck injury to throw for 217 yards, two TDs and no picks (122.3 rating). Reggie Bush ran for a career-high 203 yards and has now gone over the 100-yard mark the last three games.
Bowles will not have trouble getting his guys to play hard. After all, they didn’t quit after starting the season 0-7 SU (1-5-1 ATS). They’re 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games. The only stinker was a 26-10 home loss against Philly two games ago, giving Ross the excuse he wanted to fire Sparano.
Bush is sure to get around 20 carries this week and his eyes are lighting up after New England ’s run defense got gashed (252 yards) by Denver. However, New England’s run ‘D’ isn’t bad overall (117.6 YPG, ranked 19th) and should play with a chip on its shoulder this week.
The better Miami matchup is Moore throwing against the league’s worst pass defense (297 YPG). Brandon Marshall (1,021 yards) will be a problem for whoever covers him. Tight end Anthony Fasano should find holes in the middle of the field, especially with safety Patrick Chung (foot) out since Nov. 6 and questionable again. Pass-rusher Andre Carter (10 sacks) was also lost for the year after getting injured last game.
Miami’s key injury has offensive tackle Jake Long (back) questionable after missing last game.
Getting the warm-weather Dolphins to come north to New England late in the year used to be an automatic win. However, Miami played very tough with below-freezing temperatures and snow flurries in Buffalo. Weather on Saturday should be in the 30s, but with no precipitation.
New England is 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS against Miami the last six meetings. Opening week in South Beach was a 38-24 Pats win as 7-point favorites. Chad Henne was Miami’s quarterback and had 416 passing yards, but Brady answered with a team-record 517.