The Denver Broncos and their ‘Tebow Time’ heroics are the talk of the NFL, but is their luck about to run out against the New England Patriots this Sunday?
The oddsmakers are skeptical about the Broncos chances, installing them as 6½-point home underdogs. The total is 46 points.
CBS is excited to broadcast the matchup at 4:15 p.m. (ET) from Sports Authority Field at Mile High. It was thought NBC might flex this game to Sunday night, but Patriots owner Robert Kraft reportedly used his vast influence to keep the game put.
The Broncos (8-5 straight up, 7-6 against the spread) have a 1-game lead over Oakland in the AFC West, an unthinkable scenario after starting the season 1-4 SU and ATS, languishing under quarterback Kyle Orton.
The 24-year-old Tebow became the starter in Miami on October 23 and the team is 7-1 SU since, including a current 6-game winning streak. Three of the seven wins have come in overtime and five of them have been by four points or less.
The Broncos are also 6-2 ATS under Tebow. They did fail to cover at home against Chicago last week, 13-10 in OT as 3½-point favorites. The god-fearing lefty isn’t shy about expressing his religious beliefs and divine intervention may be the only explanation why Bears running back Marion Barber inexplicably ran out of bounds late in the fourth quarter to allow a Denver comeback.
Tebow is still a work-in-progress as a passer, but somehow plays great in the fourth quarter (111.1 rating). The offense is scoring just 20.5 PPG in Tebow starts, but the defense has done better at 20.3 PPG. The ‘under’ is 5-3 over that span.
The Patriots (10-3 SU, 7-6 ATS) have won five straight games and will clinch the AFC East over the Jets with a win. They are also fighting for the best record in the conference, currently knotted with Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Houston.
Quarterback Tom Brady leads the NFL’s third-best scoring offense (30.5 PPG) with receiver Wes Welker (1,339 yards) and tight end Rob Gronkowski (1,088 yards) having monster years. Denver’s defense is very heavy with blitz packages and ranks tied for fourth with 37 sacks, but Brady is good at getting rid of the ball quickly with the short passing game.
Coach Bill Belichick has been desperately trying to fix the team’s defense, but to no avail. Last week was another atrocious performance, surrendering 463 total yards to Rex Grossman and Washington. New England still won 34-27, but failed to cover as 7½-point road favorites.
Most disturbing last week was allowing 126 rushing yards to Roy Helu on 27 carries. New England has been pretty good against the run this year (107 YPG, ranked 13th), while the pass defense can’t stop anyone, dead last at 309 YPG.
Safety Patrick Chung should be able to help the pass ‘D’ at least some when he comes back, but he’s questionable (foot) to miss his sixth straight contest.
Denver is a pretty good matchup for New England on paper as Tebow can’t consistently take advantage of the man-to-man matchups with cornerbacks Kyle Arrington and Devin McCourty. Belichick should also devise a good game-plan against Denver’s read-option offense. The Pats need to pay particular attention to a rejuvenated Willis McGahee (920 yards).
The ‘over’ is 3-0 in the Patriots last three games, with the defense allowing 23.7 PPG. The ‘under’ was 4-1 in the previous five, allowing 16.8 PPG.
New England’s best defense this week could be the offense. If Brady and company can go up 14 points, it will force Denver to abandon the option some and go to a more conventional passing attack.
Denver has dominated this matchup since 2001, going 6-2 SU and ATS. The last New England win in 2008 was when Brady was injured and his 1-6 SU mark against the Broncos is his worst against any team.
Note the ‘under’ is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings with Brady held to 17 points or less in all three of his starts (Matt Cassel had the other). Holding New England under 25 points this week would be a major accomplishment.
Sunday weather is expected to be sunny and get into the mid-40s. The high altitude in Denver is always a factor, helping to tire out the opposition more easily.