Clay Matthews will be one reason the Eagles and Packers stay ’under.’
The highest current total among NFL Sunday games is 47 ½ on the Green Bay-Philadelphia matchup.
There are two schools of thought regarding a big total: Play ‘over’ figuring the NFL oddsmakers know what they're setting, or go ‘under’ believing that’s the best value.
I choose to go ‘under’ this number in the Packers-Eagles Week 1 matchup.
And this comes from somebody who believes Aaron Rodgers is the best quarterback in the NFL.
Certainly the oddsmaker has good reason to make such a high opening week number since both teams run West Coast offenses and love to pass.
But neither team’s defense is getting enough respect.
Last year, the Packers ranked No. 1 in run defense, interceptions and were second in total defense. The Eagles do not have a top flight runner and quarterback Kevin Kolb lack experience. Kolb has just a 68.9 passer rating in 12 career appearances, including two starts, during his three years in the league.
This is the first time in 11 years the Eagles won’t have Donovan McNabb, a six-time Pro Bowl quarterback. Philadelphia no longer has tailback Brian Westbrook either.
Green Bay’s pass rush, lacking during preseason, should pick up with the return to health of lineman Cullen Jenkins and linebacker Clay Matthews, who led Green Bay in sacks with 10 last year as a rookie.
The Packers also have the top cornerback in the NFC, Charles Woodson. He was the conference’s defensive player of the year in 2009 after intercepting nine passes and forcing four fumbles.
Look for Dom Capers, the Packers’ well-respected veteran defensive coordinator, to take advantage of the Eagles’ offensive line vulnerabilities particularly on the inside.
Both of Philadelphia’s starting guards, Nick Cole and Todd Herremans, are recovering from injuries as is center Jamaal Jackson. Cole missed the entire preseason because of a calf injury. Herremans played only in the third preseason contest due to a foot injury, while Jackson has only been practicing for a week after undergoing major knee surgery after getting hurt in late December.
The Eagles did pick up eight-year veteran guard Reggie Wells from Arizona, but he is still learning Philadelphia’s system and isn’t ready to start.
Rodgers has a number of top targets to throw to, including Greg Jennings, Donald Driver and emerging tight end Jermichael Finley. The Eagles, though, have long been one of the league’s best in quarterback sacks.
That didn’t change last year with the passing of Jim Johnson, the Eagles’ long-time defensive coordinator who died of cancer during training camp. Sean McDermott, a protégé of Johnson, took over as defensive coordinator.
The Eagles weren’t as strong as they were in the past under Johnson, but they still finished a respectable 12th in total defense and tied for the third most sacks in the NFL with 44.
Defensive end Trent Cole cemented his status as one of the premier pass rushers in the NFL. The Eagles should be improved at linebacker.
Middle linebacker Stewart Bradley is back after undergoing ACL surgery 13 months ago. He’s the team’s most consistent tackler. The Eagles also have Ernie Sims, a former high pick of the Detroit Lions. Sims is a big hitter and has been playing than he did in Detroit when he flashed big-play potential but was inconsistent.
Just like this preseason, the Packers looked great offensively before last year’s regular-season opener. They ended up needing a 50-yard touchdown pass with 1:11 left to put up 21 points against Chicago in Week 1.
Both teams have a history of going ‘under’ in Week 1. Green Bay is 5-1 to the ‘under’ in its last six openers, while the ‘under’ has cashed in four of the Eagles’ past five opening contests.
The ‘under’ also has cashed in six of the previous seven meetings between the two clubs. For more on this contest, check out Barry Daniels' game preview.