NFL Odds: Week 1 trends and angles

By: Jimmy Sirody | Friday, September 3, 2010
Matt Cassel

Matt Cassell and the Chiefs host the Chargers in the second MNF game.

It’s not that difficult to put together a narrative that takes the Kansas City Chiefs from the outhouse to the penthouse in 2010. Of course, a few bounces will have to go their way, beginning on Sept. 13 when they host the San Diego Chargers.

Kansas City has the easiest NFL matchup schedule, an elite running game and the Chiefs did a great job of addressing their biggest weaknesses in the offseason.

The Chargers may find that this isn’t the same team they beat twice last season by a combined score of 80-21.

Kansas City has jumped out of the starting gate in fine fashion in the past, cashing at a 16-9-2 clip against the NFL spread in its past 27 season openers. The Chiefs have also come away with the cash at a very profitable 42-21-2 clip as underdogs at Arrowhead Stadium.

The home team has ‘covered’ at a 9-5-1 clip in the last 15 showdowns between these division rivals. The SU winner is 25-5-2 ATS.

San Diego has jumped the number in nine straight games as road favorites versus an opponent with revenge. Conversely, Kansas City has strayed ‘under’ in six of its last seven home debuts.

Barry Daniels provided trends and angles for the first nine games on the Week 1 NFL menu. Notable numbers for the remainder of the slate appear below.

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Tennessee has cashed five of its last eight openers in Nashville and the Titans are 6-1 in the first of back-to-back home games. Oakland has grabbed the cheese in the past three meetings, the last coming in ’07 when they ‘covered’ as seven point road dogs while losing, 13-9. Tennessee has eclipsed the NFL betting ‘total’ in 29 of its last 43 home games versus a non-division foe and it has jumped the number at a 32-17-1 clip in its past 50 at home overall.

Green Bay snapped a five-game ATS skid against Philadelphia when the teams last met in 2007 with a 16-13 home win as three-point dogs. The Packers have posted a winning spread mark on the road the last four seasons (22-11). They also cashed at a 7-3-1 clip outside their division in 2009. The Eagles have won 12 of their last 16 at home (10-6 ATS), but they came up short in four of five as football underdogs last year.

Green Bay has jumped the number in 17 of 25 as road favorites of 3 ½-points or less and at an 18-8-1 clip as road chalk versus a non-division foe. Philadelphia has ended on the up side in 19 of its last 27 as short-enders.

San Francisco looks to avenge a 20-17 loss at Seattle in its last visit as one-point favorites. The 49ers are 6-1 ATS with division revenge, but they have failed in six of seven as away favorites.

The Seahawks have ‘covered’ in eight of the past 13 series skirmishes. They have faltered in 10 of their last 15 tries ATS on opening day.

The football betting ‘under’ is 9-4-1 in the past 14 series confrontations. Seattle has blown ‘over’ in 12 of 14 as division home pups.

Arizona swept the season series in ’09, but failed to cash as nine-point favorites at St. Louis, 21-13. The Cardinals are 15-8 ATS versus the Rams and the SU winner is 18-5 ATS.

St. Louis is 7-21-1 as home dogs versus a division opponent.

Arizona has dipped ‘under’ in 12 of 14 as division road chalk and in 15 of 19 as road favorites of 3 ½-points or less.

Dallas limited Washington to a grand total of six points in two meetings in ’09, winning 17-0 at FedEx Field.

The underdog has barked in 23 of the last 37 showdowns between these bitter division foes. However, the Redskins have failed in seven of their last eight as NFC-East short-enders.

The ‘under’ is 12-4 when Dallas is favored. The Cowboys have ended on the low side at a 21-11-2 rate as division road favorites, but they have zipped ‘over’ in 14 of 19 road openers. Washington has stayed ‘under’ at a 16-7-1 pace as division home dogs.

Baltimore looks to extend a four-game winning streak against the New York Jets. These AFC title contenders last met in 2007 with the Ravens prevailing as 10-point home favorites, 20-13.

New York has been a notoriously slow starter. The Jets are 10-24-2 as home favorites in September and they are 3-14-1 ATS in their past 18 home openers.

Baltimore has topped the ‘total’ at a 15-6-2 rate as underdogs, but ended on the down side at a 209-1 pace as non-division road short-enders.

New York has zoomed ‘over at a 16-6-1 clip in its last 23 home debuts, while heading in the opposite direction in 31 of 48 as non-division home favorites.

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