NFL Odds: Vikings, Dolphins stay 'under'
By: Jimmy Sirody
Friday, September 17, 2010
Sorry Brett, but there won’t be a lot of scoring in Minnesota this Sunday.
They took the air out of the football during the first week of the season in the NFL and ‘under’ bettors were dancing in the aisles at sports books throughout Las Vegas.
Time traveled back to the leather helmet era. Week 1 scoring was the second lowest since the league expanded to 32 teams in 2002, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.
The 16 games totaled 585 points, or 36.6 points a game. In 2007, the New England Patriots averaged 36.8 points a game. The Week 1 point total was 252 points fewer than the NFL’s one-week scoring record of 837 points set in 2008.
The ‘under’ cashed in 11 of 16 NFL betting games and there were only five teams that scored 30 points or more. Meanwhile there were 21 teams that tallied less than 20 points.
But don’t expect this to be a season long trend. Let’s not forget that last year there were 10 quarterbacks who threw for 4,000 yards. Since expansion to 32 teams in 2002, the lowest opening-week scoring total was in 2006: 553 points. By the time that season ended, the fourth most points in league history at that time had been scored.
However, let’s join the ‘under’ takers with a tasty Week 2 total.
The Minnesota Vikings return home to host the Miami Dolphins after scoring just nine points at New Orleans. Brett Favre wasn’t in sync with his depleted corps of wide receivers and this week he may well be without Percy Harvin. That means the Vikings will have to depend on a steady diet of Adrian Peterson, right, left and up the middle.
Miami’s defense is much improved, but will be tested after holding lowly Buffalo to 10 points on opening day.
The Dolphins have ducked ‘under’ with regularity on the road, turning the trick in 10 of their past 14 games. In addition, they have ended on the low side in six of their last seven on field turf.
Miami has slipped below the limit in 18 of 27 after a SU division road win and in 17 of 24 off a SU win.
Minnesota allowed 78 points in its first three games at Mall of America Field last year. In their last five home games they limited the opposition to 46 points and held the Dallas Cowboys to a field goal in the playoffs.
The Dolphins have knuckled ‘under’ at a 10-3 clip in Week 2 and the Vikings have followed suit in 10 of 11 during the second week of the season.
Most offshore books opened this ‘total’ at 42 ½ but it has been bet down to as low as 39. That’s still enough value to recommend an ‘under’ play in a game that could well end in the low 30’s.