NFL Odds: NFL Week 3 betting trends

By: Jimmy Sirody | Monday, September 20, 2010
mark sanchez

Mark Sanchez threw three TD passes in the Jets’ win over the Patriots.

The New York Jets grabbed the attention of the NFL last Sunday without a TV show or brash behavior when they dominated the New England Patriots, despite several bumps and bruises along the way.

The Jets won’t have much time to celebrate when they hit the road for the first time this season Sunday night to face unbeaten Miami (2-0 straight up and against the NFL spread), looking to snap a three-game series losing skid, both SU and ATS.

New York (1-1 SU&ATS) had won eight of 10 versus the Dolphins and cashed at a 9-1-1 clip until coming up short in both meetings last year, including a 31-27 setback in its last visit as three-point favorites.

Miami returns to Sun Life Stadium, following a pair of close wins on the road against Buffalo and Minnesota.

The trends and angles certainly favor the Jets. They have ‘covered’ at a 16-8-1 clip as division road dogs and sport a 14-5 spread edge in the Sunshine State. New York has also grabbed the green at a 10-2-1 rate in its past 13 road openers.

The Dolphins are 19-28 ATS after winning SU as dogs and 4-12 ATS at home after a SU and ATS win.

Miami has ended on the low side in 11 of its past 14 home openers and in 21 of 31 at Sun Life Stadium in September. The Jets have strayed ‘under’ at a 22-11-1 pace after a SU win of seven points or more.

Trends and angles for the remainder of the Week 3 schedule appear below.

TITANS (1-1, 1-1) at GIANTS (1-1, 1-1)
The New York Giants have rebounded to cash seven of their last eight off a SU loss in September. However, the Tennessee Titans have been worth a look as dogs (19-10), especially against the NFC (17-5-1 ATS).

Tennessee has ended on the down side in 10 of its last 11 on turf. The Titans have topped the ‘total’ at a 36-15-1 pace in non-conference games and New York has followed suit at a 21-13-1 rate as non-conference favorites.

BILLS (0-2, 0-2) at PATRIOTS (1-1, 1-1)
New England has won 13 straight versus Buffalo and cashed in six of the last seven division duels. The Patriots are 9-3-1 ATS at home against the Bills. Buffalo has managed to cash 11 of its last 16 as division dogs on the road.

The ‘under’ is 18-6 in the last 24 meetings. New England has slipped below the number in 19 of 26 as division home favorites and the Bills have dipped ‘under’ in 15 of 22 as division road pups.

BROWNS (0-2, 0-2) at RAVENS (1-1, 1-1)
Baltimore outscored Cleveland 50-3 in two meetings last season. The Browns have cashed five of their last nine against the Ravens and the dog is 10-6.

STEELERS (2-0, 2-0) at BUCCANEERS (2-0, 2-0)
The crippled Pittsburgh Steelers and the upstart Tampa Bay Buccaneers provide the only matchup between unbeatens this Sunday. The Steelers are just 9-21-1 as non-division road favorites, while the Bucs have cashed at a 16-10-1 pace as home dogs and at a 35-23-3 clip at Raymond James Stadium versus non-division foes.

Tampa Bay has slipped ‘under’ in six of its last seven as home dogs and in 19 of 26 as short-enders of three points or less.

BENGALS (1-1, 1-1) at PANTHERS (0-2, 0-2)
Cincinnati is 26-19-1 ATS away from home. Carolina has cashed at a 30-16-1 rate off a double-digit loss.

The Bengals have bounced ‘over’ in six of nine as favorites of 3 ½-points or less and at a 37-18-1 pace after winning SU as underdogs.

FALCONS (1-1, 1-1) at SAINTS (1-0, 1-0 prior to Monday)
Atlanta got the money in its last visit as 11-point dogs while losing 35-27. The home team is 15-23 ATS in the past 38 series scuffles. New Orleans has dropped 15 of its last 18 as division home favorites and the Saints are 21-30-1 ATS at the Superdome overall.

The Falcons are 18-9 ATS in the series when the ‘total’ is 40 or more.

49ERS (0-1, 0-1 prior to Monday) at CHIEFS (2-0, 2-0)
Kansas City has scuffled at home outside its division, failing to cash at a 10-4-1 clip. The Chiefs have ‘covered’ 12 of 15 after a win by three points or less and they are 20-9-1 ATS at Arrowhead Stadium off a SU and ATS victory. San Francisco has come up short in six of its last seven as road favorites while Kansas City is 42-21-1 as home dogs.

LIONS (0-2, 2-0) at VIKINGS (0-2, 0-2)
Minnesota hasn’t lost three straight since 2007 and that was also the last time Detroit cashed three in a row. The Vikings have won five straight and 16 of their last 17 against the Lions, though the dog is 12-9-1 in the last 22 meetings. Minnesota is 6-17 as favorites of 7 ½-points or more and 18-35 ATS after losing SU as favorites.

The ‘under’ has cashed in 11 of the last 16 meetings at Mall of America Field. Detroit has jumped the number at a 19-11-1 rate as double-digit dogs and the Vikings have zipped ‘over’ in 28 of 42 chances after losing SU and ATS.

COWBOYS (0-2, 0-2) at TEXANS (2-0, 2-0)
Dallas looks to avoid its first three-game slide since 2004. Houston looks to extend a six-game win streak dating back to 2009. The Cowboys have failed to ‘cover’ 19 of their last 26 on the road against AFC opposition.

Dallas has ended on the high side in 20 of 28 as single-digit dogs and in 19 of 29 on the road versus a non-division foe. The Texans have tipped ‘over’ at a 7-4-1 pace versus NFC rivals.

REDSKINS (1-1, 1-1) at RAMS (0-21, 1-1)
Washington has floundered at an 11-3-2 clip in its first role as favorites. St. Louis will be looking to avenge a 9-7 loss to the Skins last season as 9 ½-point road dogs.

The Rams have flown ‘over’ in eight of 13 as non-division home dogs. The Redskins have headed in the opposite direction at a 10-4-1 rate as road favorites of 3 ½-points or less.

EAGLES (1-1, 0-2) at JAGUARS (1-1, 1-1)
Jacksonville has ‘covered’ 17 of 25 after losing by 14 points or more. The Jaguars have also cashed 19 of 29 at home versus NFC opponents. Philadelphia is 0-7 as favorites off a SU win but an ATS loss.

The Eagles have ended on the down side in 22 of 30 games after scoring 28 points or more and in 14 of 20 on the road after allowing 28 points or more. Conversely, Jacksonville has topped the ‘total’ in 22 of 36 as single-digit dogs.

COLTS (1-1, 1-1) at BRONCOS (1-1, 1-1)
Indianapolis is 15-5 as road favorites in September and 30-17-2 on the road versus non-division foes. Denver has come away with the cash in 11 of its last dozen games as non-division home dogs of more than three points.

CHARGERS (1-1, 1-1) at SEAHAWKS (1-1, 1-1)
San Diego has passed 25 of its last 35 non-conference road tests ATS and the Chargers are 32-15-1 ATS after winning by 15 points or more. Seattle is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 home games against AFC competition. The Seahawks have also ‘covered’ at a 16-9-1 pace as dogs after losing SU and ATS.

San Diego has blown ‘over’ in seven of 10 as non-division road ‘chalk’ and at a 25-16-1 pace as non-conference favorites.

RAIDERS 91-1, 0-2) at CARDINALS (1-1, 1-1)
Arizona has cashed 17 of 26 as home favorites after a SU loss and seven of eight as favorites off a double-digit ATS loss. Oakland is 0-7 ATS as non-conference dogs of less than 10.

The Raiders have slipped below the limit in 13 of 16 non-conference showdowns. However, the Cardinals have zipped ‘over’ in 12 of 18 as favorites versus the AFC.

PACKERS (2-0, 2-0) at BEARS (2-0, 2-0)
The underdog has won five of six Monday night meetings between these two bitter division rivals. Green Bay swept the season series last year, winning 21-15 at home as 4 ½-point favorites and 21-14 in the Windy City as four-point choices. The Bears are just 5-13 ATS at home versus the Packers.

The ‘over’ is 23-15 in the past 38 clashes and the teams have gone above the limit in five of six Monday night meetings. The Packers have skipped ‘over’ in 17 of 25 as road favorites of 3 ½-points or less.

 
 
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