NFL Odds: Dallas QB to miss preseason finale

By: Barry Daniels | Wednesday, September 1, 2010
Tony Romo

The ’under’ is 9-1 in Dallas’ last 10 outings dating to last season.

Bettors attempting to get on the right side of Thursday's preseason finale between the Miami Dolphins and Dallas Cowboys at the new Texas Stadium must determine what players will be on the field, and for how long. 

Although Tony Romo has led the Dallas Cowboys to only one touchdown in four games, coach Wade Phillips said Tuesday that his starting quarterback will not be getting any snaps during the final preseason game. Third-stringer Stephen McGee will be the starting signal caller.

Phillips said "selected starters" will play. That likely means guys who play positions where the Cowboys have injuries will be pressed into action. Rookie receiver Dez Bryant's status also remains in doubt.

Miami coach Tony Sparano had a similar theme during a Monday press conference, saying his starters might not play too much.

Most offshore sports books monitored by the Don Best NFL betting odds product have installed the Cowboys as 1 ½-point home favorites, with the ‘total' set at 37 ½ points.

The Cowboys have struggled to a 0-4 preseason. The first-team offense has one touchdown drive and it lasted eight yards. The defense has also had its down moments, either with some of the third-down work or stopping the run.

One consideration for Dallas playing more of its starters Thursday is the club's regular season schedule, which is back-loaded. During the first seven games, the Cowboys face only one opponent (Minnesota, at home) that reached the playoffs last season. The Cowboys' final nine games include six dates against playoff clubs from a year ago.

The Cowboys must be primed for a quick start. The unappealing alternative will be trying to make up ground against good teams in the second half.

During three seasons under Phillips, the Tony Romo-led offense had 43 points in seven quarters during those games. The first-team offense did not score any points last week in three quarters against Houston during a 23-7 loss as 5 ½-point road underdogs.

The combined 30 points ducked below the 41 ½-point total, which enabled the ‘under' to improve to 9-1 in Dallas' last 10 outings dating to last season.

The offense cannot come to life by flicking a switch on opening day at Washington on Sept. 12. It needs a productive final exhibition to generate good feelings heading into Washington. That might be worth the risk of injury in Thursday's preseason finale.

Miami is 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS in its first three preseason games, but the one clunker occurred during the most recent outing when the starters played into the third quarter of a 16-6 home loss against Atlanta.

The Dolphins closed as 2 ½-point favorites, while the combined 22 points slithered well ‘under' the 38 ½-point closing total.

Not much looked great or worked great for Miami, and one gets the sense, given how much the starters played and the quality opponent, that this result might have expressed more about the team than those two earlier narrow exhibition wins over doormats Tampa Bay (10-7) and Jacksonville (27-26).

Miami quarterback Chad Henne is just 24 and is in his first preseason of his first full season as the Dolphins' starter. He was a mediocre 10-of-22 in that home loss to Atlanta, including an end-zone interception. He produced a dismal three points in his two-plus quarters of action.

Miami is 4-3 SU and 3-4 ATS in the last four meetings against Dallas. However, the clubs have not met since the 2007 campaign when the Cowboys registered a 37-20 victory as 3 ½-point home favorites. The ‘under' is 5-2 in those seven football matchups.

Don't forget to check the weather forecast for all of Thursday's NFL preseason contests.