NFL Line Watch Week 15

By: Art Aronson | Tuesday, December 12, 2017

Game to bet now

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City (-1)

When the Chargers and Chiefs met nearly three months ago it was Kansas City's third win in what would be a five-game win streak, and Los Angeles' third consecutive loss in what would be a season-opening four-game losing streak.  Teams headed in opposite directions.  No one thought their meeting in mid-December would turn out to be the most important in the AFC West this season.  Both teams are 7-6, both have winnable games in Weeks 16 and 17, and the second-place team in then division will not likely get a wild-card playoff spot - so this one is basically IT in the division.  The line hasn't budged since opening at -1 on Sunday night, but bettors should be aware that the Chargers should have a little extra motivation due to their earlier loss to the Chiefs.  If the Chargers fall a game back with two to go, and KC has the first tie-breaker due to beating LA twice, it's basically over for the Chargers.

Game to wait on

New England at Pittsburgh (+2.5)

It's likely that the Patriots were 35,000 feet someplace over Georgia when they forgot about Monday night's unexpected loss to Miami.  In the grand scheme of things, win or lose the Pats still would have to beat the Steelers this coming Sunday to maintain home-field edge in the playoffs, so it's not likely they would empty the playbook in Miami.  Then there is the matter of TE Rob Gronkowski, who due to suspension will have had two weeks to rest before going at the Steelers.  Books apparently didn't pay the Miami game too much heed, since the line didn't move an inch after New England turned in perhaps its worst game since Tom Brady was serving the final game of his four-week suspension in Week 4 last season. Early money did fatten the line from Pittsburgh +1 to the current +2.5, so bettors might want to see if public money stays on the Steelers, perhaps nudging the number down a bit.

Total to watch

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle (47.5)

LA has been one of the top-scoring teams in the league on the road this season, averaging more than 32 points away from home.  And that number balloons to more than 37 if a Week 11 7-point hiccup is eliminated from the mix.  Much of the credit goes to RB Todd Gurley, who has been both healthy and productive. Gurley figures to get the ball early and often against a Seahawks defense that is only a shadow of the unit that it was over the last half-decade.  Seattle gave up 30 points in a ugly loss to Jacksonville on Sunday and needs to step up big-time at home against the Rams. The 47.5 is the highest posted total for a Seahawks home game this season and the highest overall since the 49.5 on opening day at Green Bay.


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