Nobody has to tell Sean Payton and the New Orleans Saints how important it is to gain home-field advantage for the playoffs. Roughly 11 months after winning Super Bowl XLIV, the Saints found themselves in Seattle to begin the playoffs last season, and were embarrassed by the Seahawks in a 41-36 upset as 10½-point favorites.
New Orleans has all but guaranteed itself there will be no road trips to begin this year's postseason, but the Saints want more and prefer to avoid the first round of the playoffs altogether.
Payton & Co. can take one small step towards reaching that goal with a victory this Sunday in Minnesota against the Vikings (1:00 p.m. ET, FOX). Oddsmakers like their chances in the matchup with the Saints favored by seven.
The Saints own a two-game lead over Atlanta in the NFC South and can wrap up the division with a win this week plus a Falcons loss. That would at least put New Orleans at home for one postseason game. Securing the No. 2 seed in the NFC will require some help.
New Orleans is presently tied with San Francisco for that spot, each squad sitting 10-3 in the standings. The 49ers have a home date with the Steelers on Monday night followed by road games in Seattle and St. Louis; the Saints will be home to meet Atlanta and Carolina the last two weeks of the campaign.
It all begins on the offensive side of the ball for the Saints. Directed by Drew Brees, New Orleans ranks at the top of the charts in total yards and passing yards, eighth in rushing and second in scoring at just under 32 points per contest.
Brees himself is having a fantastic season, third in QB rating (105.9) and on pace to break Dan Marino's record from 1984 for passing yards (5,084). Averaging over 330 yards per game so far, Brees needs less than 240 each contest the rest of the way to top the 27-year-old record.
Favorite target Jimmy Graham is fifth in the NFL with more than 1,100 yards receiving, and leads all tight ends in that category. Graham had an MRI on his back earlier this week after experiencing spasms in last week's 22-17 win at Tennessee. He's currently listed as probable on the Don Best injury report.
Rookie tailback Mark Ingram is questionable with a toe injury that has cost him three games this season. Ingram missed last week's contest and leads the team with 474 yards rushing, but his absence has been picked up before by Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas, each with more than 400 yards on the ground in the 'running back by committee' approach that also includes Chris Ivory. Sproles has 74 receptions as well, second on the team behind Graham's 80.
All of those numbers are bad news for a Minnesota defense that should play right into the hands of Brees and his mates. The Vikings do rate near the top of the league in fewest rushing yards allowed, but that's primarily because the pass defense has yielded so much ground. Led by Jared Allen's NFL-best 17.5 sacks, Minnesota does have a decent pass rush, but it hasn't been enough to stop teams from throwing on this unit.
The Vikings have surrendered the most passing touchdowns in the NFL (26) and are tied for the fewest picks (6). Only the Buccaneers and Colts have given up more points than Minnesota.
The scoring deluge hasn't been entirely on the defense's shoulder the last two weeks which have seen the Vikings turn the ball over nine times compared with just two takeaways. Rookie QB Christian Ponder was responsible for four of Minnesota's six turnovers in last Sunday's 34-28 road setback to the Detroit Lions. Ponder's fumble early in the first quarter was recovered for a Lions TD, and a second quarter interception was returned for another score.
Joe Webb eventually relieved Ponder, but head coach Leslie Frazier has said he'll stick with Ponder for this game despite that performance as well as a minor hip injury.
Ponder and the offense might also have a huge weapon return this week with running back Adrian Peterson upgraded to probable on the injury report. Peterson suffered a high-ankle sprain nearly a month ago against the Raiders and has missed the last three games.
Minnesota all but owned this series before the 2009 season began, the Vikes winning seven of the eight battles from 1995-2008. That dominance ended in the NFC Championship played at New Orleans in late-January 2010 when a late interception thrown by Minnesota quarterback Brett Favre helped force overtime. The Saints, favored by four, triumphed 31-28 in that game and were 5½-point favorites in Sept. 2010 when they eked out a 14-9 home victory.
Sunday's NFL betting total started at 51 and has since fallen a tad to 50½. The 'over' has been a winner seven of the last 10 head-to-head meetings, with one 'push.' A string of five 'overs' was broken in last season's matchup.
Just in case the roof collapses again at the old Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome and the game is held outdoors in the Twin Cities, a clear but cold forecast is in the offering. Sunday afternoon's high in Minneapolis is currently set at 38ºF.