The Saturday NFL Armageddon between the Jets and Giants and will have a lot more riding on it than just who is ‘King of New York.’
The Jets are between 2½-3 point favorites with a total of 46 points. They are the home team at shared MetLife Stadium, but there should be plenty of Giants fans who get their hands on tickets. FOX will broadcast at 1:00 p.m. (ET).
The Jets (8-6 straight up, 6-8 against the spread) are coming off an embarrassing 45-19 loss at Philadelphia as 3-point ‘dogs. They’re currently tied with Cincinnati for the AFC’s last wild-card, but should advance with tiebreakers if they win Saturday and at Miami in Week 17. They can possibly get in with a 9-7 SU mark, but would need help.
Coach Rex Ryan has already started his pre-game tough talk, saying he has the better team. The Jets players have mostly responded well to his past bravado, making the AFC title game in his first two seasons, although few remember they ‘back-doored’ their way into the 2009 postseason.
The Giants (7-7 SU, 6-7-1 ATS) should feel more humiliated than the Jets after a 23-10 loss to Washington last Sunday. Not only were they home as 5½-point favorites, but it resulted in a season-sweep against underwhelming quarterback Rex Grossman.
The G-Men are just 1-5 SU (2-4 ATS) in their last six games, with the win a miracle comeback at Dallas (37-34) two weeks ago. They remarkably still control their own destiny in the NFC East. It will require winning out with the Cowboys visiting the final week. The Giants are already eliminated from wild-card contention, so Saturday is a season-saver.
Coach Tom Coughlin has the polar opposite personality of Ryan, keeping most of his verbiage to ‘coach-speak,’ but he also hasn’t had Ryan’s recent late-season success. The Giants have made the playoffs just once since their 2007 Super Bowl run, going 7-11 SU (8-10 ATS) in December and January combined. He will likely be fired with a loss.
The Jets game-plan will be to run the ball and protect Mark Sanchez, neither of which was done against Philly. The quarterback was harassed and sacked four times, plus suffered a neck injury (listed as probable).
Running back Shonn Greene had 73 yards last game on 18 attempts (4.1 per carry). He averaged 98.3 yards on 5.0 yards per carry the prior three games, wins over Kansas City (37-10), Washington (34-19) and Buffalo (27-24).
The ‘over’ is 4-0 in the Jets last four games and 4-0 in their last four at home.
Sanchez hasn’t thrown for more than 181 yards in his last four contests, but that’s fine as long as he doesn’t turn it over like last week (two picks and one fumble).
The Giants game-plan will rely on the NFL’s third-ranked passing attack (299 YPG). Eli Manning easily had his worst quarterback rating of the year last game (45.5) with three picks and no TDs. He didn’t get much help from his receivers with dropped balls and wrong routes.
Manning has shown a flair for the dramatic with fourth quarter comebacks, but needs a consistent effort for all four quarters. Tight end Jake Ballard (knee) got hurt last game and is expected out. Backup Travis Beckum (chest) is also questionable. That’s big news as the Jets are vulnerable in the middle of the field with safety Jim Leonhard out for the season.
Manning will be forced to throw to his wide receiver trio of Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz and Mario Manningham, who are talented. However, the Jets play very well in man coverage at cornerback and the windows to throw into will be tight. Running back Ahmad Bradshaw should get more carries than bruising Brandon Jacobs as the Jets have more trouble with shiftier backs.
The Giants are also expected to be without defensive end Osi Umenyiora (ankle). He hasn’t played since Nov. 28 and the pass rush has slowed outside of Jason Pierre-Paul (13.5 sacks) as Justin Tuck (toe) is also playing banged up.
These teams have played just four times since 1996 with the Giants 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS. The ‘over’ is 3-0 in the last three. The Jets haven’t won since 1993 when Boomer Esiason was at quarterback.
Saturday weather should be in the 40s with a few showers possible.