Except for the weather, Sunday's matchup between the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers is likely to have a preseason feel to it.
Lambeau Field in Green Bay is expected to live up to its 'frozen tundra' reputation when the Packers and Lions close out their regular season schedules with a 1:00 p.m. (ET) kickoff on FOX. The thermometer might just make it into the low-30s, and there's a 30 percent chance of snow flurries with westerly gusts up to 20 mph during the afternoon. It would make for a great setting if both the Packers and Lions had something to play for.
But they don't. Green Bay has already wrapped up the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs as Aaron Rodgers and his pals look to defend their Super Bowl title. Detroit has also clinched a spot in the playoffs as well, and the outcome of the Cowboys-Giants and Buccaneers-Falcons contests could prove more critical to the Lions than this game.
Of course, there is all that playing for pride stuff with teams wanting to go into the postseason on a winning note, yadda-yadda-yadda. Still, we presume to see a bunch of backups playing in the snow, and early bettors apparently like the Detroit reserves over their Green Bay counterparts.
The Packers went out as 2-3 point favorites at many shops offering NFL odds, but that has since moved the other direction with the Lions at -3½ by midweek. 'Under' players have also chimed in since the start to drop the total a couple of points to the 45½-46 range.
There really is nothing for the Packers to prove on Sunday, other than winning for the Green Bay faithful to close out a perfect 8-0 regular season at home (6-1 against the spread). Honors are already rolling in for Rodgers who was named the NFC's starting quarterback for the Pro Bowl, and the MVP trophy should be forthcoming. Nothing official has come from head coach Mike McCarthy, but all signs point to Rodgers and most regulars having a short workday with just a quarter or so of action.
Some of the regulars won't even see that much time as Green Bay deals with a few injuries. Wide receiver Greg Jennings, who leads the team with 67 catches despite missing the last two games, is definitely out as he continues to mend his sprained left knee, and tight end Jermichael Finley is expected to sit out while he rests a sore left knee. The receiving corps might be even thinner with backup Randall Cobb nursing a groin pull.
Running back James Starks (ankle) is also out for the game, leaving Ryan Grant to start before being spelled by Brandon Saine.
Defensive reserves will also be on the field a lot, though their participation might not be too much cause for concern considering the Packers are 31st among the 32 NFL teams in yards allowed per game (400.7).
Detroit (10-5 SU, 7-7-1 ATS) does have something to play for; a win would sew up the fifth seed in the NFC and result in a first-round playoff matchup at the Cowboys or Giants as opposed to facing either the 49ers or Saints on the road to begin the postseason. Head coach Jim Schwartz declared Detroit would "play...to win" this week, though he quickly added a caveat on the importance of not getting anyone hurt.
Quarterback Matthew Stafford would probably play the whole game if the decision was entirely his to make. The third-year pro out of Georgia wants to atone for his performance when the Lions hosted the Packers on Thanksgiving Day when he threw three interceptions in the 27-15 loss to Green Bay, miscues the Pack turned into 17 points.
That decision won't rest entirely up to Stafford, and it's anyone's guess how long he sees action on Sunday. Conventional wisdom would suggest the first half, and not much longer. Detroit won't have the advantage of scoreboard watching with regards to what Atlanta is doing. The Falcons will be hosting Tampa Bay in one of the late-afternoon kickoffs, and the Lions will simply have to assume the Birds will be able to take care of business against a pitiful Buccaneers squad.
The Lions are pretty healthy heading into this game, with Calvin Johnson the biggest concern. Stafford's favorite wide receiver is probable with an Achilles injury, and running back Kevin Smith (ankle) is practicing this week. Smith's status remains up in the air, and the club added Joique Bell to the backfield this week in case the decision is to rest Smith in the season finale.
Detroit has beaten the Packers just once in the last 12 meetings, that victory coming in Dec. 2010 under the big top in Motown. Green Bay has covered eight of those 12 spreads with the dozen totals level at 6-6 'over/under.' Recent head-to-head battles have trended strongly to the low side, however, with the 'under' 4-1 since the start of the 2009 campaign.