The Detroit Lions have to be kicking themselves as they visit the New Orleans Saints in a wild-card weekend matchup Saturday night at Mercedes-Benz Superdome.
The opening NFL odds are out and Detroit is a 10½-point underdog with a big total of 58½-59. NBC will broadcast the second half of its doubleheader at 8:00 p.m. (ET) after Cincinnati (+3) at Houston.
The Lions (10-6 straight up, 7-7-2 against the spread) could have clinched the No. 5 seed in the NFC with a win at Green Bay yesterday, but lost 45-41 despite the Pack having nothing to play for and sitting several starters, including quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Backup Matt Flynn incredibly still threw for 480 yards and six touchdowns, both team records.
The loss snapped a 3-game winning streak for coach Jim Schwartz’ Lions. They were 6½-point closing favorites and are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after starting 4-0-1 ATS.
Detroit would have faced the Giants with a win, a tough assignment in the cold weather, but not as tough as this one. New Orleans’ home games have been its own mini Mardi Gras, going a perfect 8-0 SU and ATS, including a 45-17 win over Carolina on Sunday. The average score is 41-18.
Quarterback Matthew Stafford has his work cut out for him, but he’s answered challenges all year. The 23-year-old became one of three signal callers to break the 5,000 yard mark (5,038) and did it with the 29th ranked rushing attack (96.7 YPG). Kevin Smith is the featured back with Jahvid Best out for the year, but Smith doesn’t scare opposing defenses.
The defense has to answer for that embarrassing performance against Green Bay. Defensive tackle Corey Williams (hip) and safety Louis Delmas (ankle) were both out, but that is no excuse. They are each listed as questionable this week.
Detroit is 5-3 SU and 3-3-2 ATS away. The offense can score both home (30.4 PPG) and away (28.9 PPG). However, the defense allows a touchdown more on opposing turf (27.9 PPG) versus Ford Field (20.5 PPG).
The ‘over’ is 7-1 in Detroit’s road games this year.
New Orleans (13-3 SU, 12-4 ATS) did its part to wrestle the No. 2 seed from San Francisco, but the 49ers held on by beating St. Louis (34-27). The Saints will travel to the Bay Area if they win on Saturday night in a great potential matchup.
Coach Sean Payton’s guys first need to take care of business against Detroit. Quarterback Drew Brees had already broken Dan Marino’s single-season yardage mark in Week 16, but added 389 more against Carolina on SUnday to finish at a whopping 5,476. He also threw for 46 TDs with his previous high just 34.
Brees is so dangerous because of his accuracy (71.2 percent) and that his favorite receiver is the ‘open one.’ Tight end Jimmy Graham (1,310 yards) is arguably the most dangerous weapon, but seven guys have at least 425 receiving yards, including two running backs.
The Saints running game (132.9 YPG, ranked sixth) did get some bad news yesterday with Mark Ingram (toe) out for the playoffs. However, the rookie won’t be missed too much with the stable of Pierre Thomas, Chris Ivory and Darren Sproles more than keeping opposing defenses honest.
The rest of the injury report has receiver Lance Moore (hamstring) and middle linebacker Jonathan Vilma (knee) both questionable. Vilma appears to be the healthier of the two and should play.
Coordinator Gregg Williams saw his defenders finish 24th in the NFL in total yards allowed (368.4 YPG), but 13th in points (21.2 PPG). They do an even better job limiting points at home (17.9 PPG) where they seem to play much faster.
Detroit and New Orleans already played once in the Bayou on Dec. 4, with the Saints winning 31-17 as 9-point favorites. Stafford threw for 408 yards and the Lions won time-of-possession 35-25 minutes. However, 11 penalties for 107 yards killed their chances.
The Saints won the Super Bowl two years ago, shocking Indianapolis 31-17. Last year, they were upset 41-36 as 9½-point favorites during wild-card weekend at Seattle.
The ‘over’ is 6-1-1 in New Orleans’ last eight playoff games, 4-0 at home.
The Lions haven’t made the postseason since 1999 and must withstand the wave of energy that will come from the New Orleans’ fans and players in the first quarter.
Weather is not a factor playing in the dome.