The never-say-die Denver Broncos hope to continue their miracle season when they visit the New England Patriots in a divisional round matchup on Saturday night.
Don Best has the just-released NFL odds and New England is a big 13½-point favorite with a total of 50½-51. CBS regains its normal AFC coverage at 8:00 p.m. (ET) from Gillette Stadium.
The Broncos (9-8 straight up, 8-9 against the spread) have the entire football world buzzing after their latest ‘Mile High Miracle,’ a 29-23 overtime win over Pittsburgh as 7½-point home ‘dogs. An 80-yard pass from Tim Tebow to Demaryius Thomas on the first play of OT was the dramatic conclusion. Tebow had 316 passing yards with three completions over 50 yards.
The win snapped the Broncos’ 3-game losing streak, both SU and ATS, although they previously backed into the AFC West title. Tebow was getting bashed in the national media after averaging 146.3 passing yards in those three losses, with many calling for a position change to fullback.
One of those losses came at home versus New England on Dec. 18. The Broncos dominated the Pats in the first quarter with 167 rushing yards. However, three second quarter turnovers turned a 16-7 lead into a 27-16 halftime deficit. Tebow and company were forced to play catch-up, not their strength, losing 41-23 win as 7-point home underdogs.
New England (13-3 SU, 9-7 ATS) coach Bill Belichick would never admit it, but he was the president of the Tebow fan club for at least one week. Belichick would much rather face Denver than Pittsburgh, who could have easily shredded the league’s 31st-ranked pass defense (294 YPG) even with Ben Roethlisberger on a bum ankle.
Belichick’s bunch earned the AFC’s top seed by virtue of the NFL’s third-ranked scoring offense (32.1 PPG). Playing a very physical Steelers team that went to the Super Bowl last year, and won it three years ago, would be anything but a reward.
The Patriots have far more pressure on them. They’ve lost the last two years in opening home playoff games to Baltimore (33-14) and the New York Jets (28-21) laying 3½ and 9½ points respectively. New England has dropped three straight playoff games overall including the crushing 2008 Super Bowl loss to the Giants (17-14) to ruin a perfect season.
Brady threw an early interception in that Jets game that turned momentum around. He also had three picks versus the Ravens. He’s mostly bothered by strong pass rushes up the middle so Denver needs to use that strategy and not just rely on the outside rush of Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil.
The offensive game plan for New England could be no-huddle from the outset, getting Brady in rhythm and trying to force Denver to play from behind. Defensively, New England will not cheat up on the run like Pittsburgh, taking away the big pass from Tebow and forcing him to throw underneath. The inaccurate quarterback only completed 10-of-21 passes against Pitt and was 46.5 percent in the regular season (ranked last).
The Broncos feel they would have won the first meeting if not for turnovers and there is some merit in that. They want to run the ball first and foremost to keep Brady off the field. Their big matchup problem defensively is the young safeties against New England’s tight end combo of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez.
The bye week should be a big boost for the Patriots as long as they don’t come out flat. The extra time has allowed offensive guard Logan Mankins (knee) and tackle Sebastian Vollmer (back) to both be probable after missing time.
The extra rest is also good for linebacker Brandon Spikes and safety Patrick Chung, who each returned last game. Spikes is a very good run stuffer on early downs and Chung has been missed in the secondary most of the year. The team has experimented with Devin McCourty at safety next to Chung, but that leaves the corner position an even bigger question.
Denver has a lot of young legs and fatigue shouldn’t be a factor despite losing a day of preparation. Receiver Eric Decker (knee) is not expected to play and safety Brian Dawkins (neck) questionable at best. The veteran Dawkins is needed against this high-octane offense.
Denver is 5-1 SU and ATS on the road with Tebow starting, but lost 40-14 at Buffalo in the last one right before Christmas.
New England is 7-1 SU (4-4 ATS) at home this year, but 0-5 ATS in its last five home playoff games. The ‘under’ is 7-1-1 in its last nine divisional games.
Early weather predictions are clear, but in the 20s. The night game is an advantage for New England as the sometimes quiet Gillette Stadium should be rowdy with the extra tailgating time.