The Baltimore Ravens aren’t getting much respect from the oddsmakers for Sunday’s AFC title game at the New England Patriots.
Don Best has the just-released NFL conference championship odds and New England is a solid 7½-point favorite with a total of 50½. CBS will broadcast at 3:00 p.m. (ET) from Gillette Stadium.
The NFC title game at 6:30 p.m. (ET) has the New York Giants as 2½-3 point ‘dogs at San Francisco. The Super Bowl future odds are also out with New England (+130) ahead of the 49ers (+225), Giants (+240) and Ravens (+480).
The Ravens (13-4 straight up, 8-8-1 against the spread) advanced Sunday with a 20-13 home win over Houston. They not only failed to cover as 7½-point favorites, but were outgained 315-227 in total yards, getting helped immensely by four Texans turnovers. Three of those were picks off rookie quarterback T.J. Yates.
Baltimore was fortunate to win with just 11 first downs and now faces a quarterback at the other end of the spectrum in Tom Brady. The road also hasn’t been kind to John Harbaugh’s team at 4-4 SU and ATS this year. All four of those losses were as favorites.
New England (14-3 SU, 10-7 ATS) had a much easier time this past weekend, a 45-10 home win over Denver as 13½-point favorites. The Pats were more than ready for Tim Tebow and the unorthodox Broncos offense, and Brady tied a playoff record with six passing TDs (363 yards overall).
The ‘over’ is now 7-0 in New England’s last seven games, the Patriots scoring an amazing 37.9 PPG.
The Patriots badly need that performance after losing to Baltimore (33-14) and the New York Jets (28-21) in their last two playoff games, both at home. Brady had four total picks in those contests and some were questioning whether he’s still a clutch playoff performer at age 34.
New England went mostly no-huddle against Denver and will almost definitely do so again this week. That will help tire out a Ravens defense that has two aging superstars in linebacker Ray Lewis and safety Ed Reed.
Reed is listed as questionable after hurting his ankle late against Houston, but he’s a warrior and should play.
Coach Bill Belichick’s offense is predicated on creating mismatches and the tight end combo of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez gives every team fits. Hernandez even lined up as a running back last game and led the team with 61 yards on five carries. He got his bell rung in the fourth quarter running the ball with a big lead (a rare dumb move by Belichick), but is not on the injury report.
Brady will look to exploit the Ravens’ linebackers in coverage as well as strong safety Bernard Pollard. Pollard is the guy who caused Brady’s season-ending knee injury in 2008 while with Kansas City, so there is extra motivation there.
Baltimore’s offense needs to play a lot better this week to have a chance. Ray Rice (1,364 regular season rushing yards) was stuffed by Houston for 60 yards on 21 carries. The Patriots did a nice job against Denver (144 yards on 40 carries), but were run against some in the regular season (117.1 YPG, ranked 17th).
Quarterback Joe Flacco didn’t have a turnover last game, but had just 176 passing yards and is averaging 146 YPG over the last three weeks. Anquan Boldin (887 yards) was the regular season leading receiver, followed by rookie Torrey Smith (841) and Rice (704). Smith is the main deep threat, but has just 80 total yards and no TDs his last three games.
Offenses feel a lot of pressure playing New England, needing to match points. The Ravens must stay balanced and not have Flacco throw it 35 times. The Patriots were second-worst in the league in passing yards allowed (294 YPG) during the regular season, but having safety Patrick Chung healthy has made a difference and their best play could be ahead of them.
The Ravens’ have two main missions on Sunday, pressure Brady and create turnovers. They ranked tied for third in the regular season in sacks (48), with Terrell Suggs at 14, although they were shut out against Houston. Reed (one pick last week) is very dangerous at free safety and Brady may hold the ball a second or two longer to account for where he is.
The only other meeting since the January 2010 playoff game came that following October. New England won 23-20 at home in OT after trailing 20-10 in the fourth quarter. Brady had two picks and was sacked three times for 25 yards.
Early weather predictions have temps in the low 40s with a 30 percent chance of rain. Wind could go up to 10 mph. Brady will be able to throw in those conditions, so it will be up to Baltimore to stop him.