The Atlanta Falcons are playing much better football as we head towards the postseason. They will try to prove it’s no fluke at the tough New Orleans Saints on Monday night.
Atlanta is 6½-point underdogs with the matchup sporting the highest total of the week at 53 points. ESPN will close out the Week 16 coverage at 8:30 p.m. (ET) from Mercedes-Benz Superdome.
The Falcons (9-5 straight up, 6-7-1 against the spread) can secure a wild card with a win or tie Monday or next week at home against Tampa Bay. The NFC South division is a much slimmer possibility as Atlanta has to win out, plus New Orleans lose at home to Carolina in its finale.
Coach Mike Smith’s team would be in much better shape if not for a 26-23 home loss to New Orleans on November 13. Smith made a very unorthodox move in OT by going for it on fourth down on his own 29-yard-line. It backfired and John Kasey kicked the game-winner.
Atlanta went into a little funk after that, going 2-1 SU but 0-2-1 ATS in its next three games. The cloud finally lifted in the second half at Carolina two games ago, storming back from a 23-7 halftime deficit for a 31-23 win. The Falcons then got their second straight win and cover last Thursday night, dismantling Jacksonville 41-14 as 13 ½-point home favorites.
The ‘over’ is 2-0 in Atlanta’s last two games after the ‘under’ was 8-0 in the previous eight.
The Falcons are well rested, but appear to be a step below the NFC elite of Green Bay, New Orleans and San Fran. Matt Ryan ranks 10th in QB rating, but is still working on his consistency. Roddy White (1,100 yards) is a very good receiver, although has battled drop problems. Rookie Julio Jones has come on the last three games (85.7 YPG), but has more to prove.
Michael Turner (1,129 yards) is third in the league in rushing, but is averaging just 60. 3 YPG on 3.3 yards per carry the last four. An ongoing groin injury has been part of the problem. It will be hard to stay patient with the running game this week when trying to match points with an offensive juggernaut like New Orleans.
The Falcons rank ninth in total defense (327.2 YPG) and hope to get starting cornerback Brent Grimes (knee) and reserve Kelvin Hayden (toe) back. That would be big.
New Orleans (11-3 SU, 10-4 ATS) is playing like a team on a mission with a 6-0 SU and ATS streak. Every win matters as it battles not just for the division crown, but also the No. 2 conference seed. The latter will require at least one loss by San Francisco, who does have a tough game at Seattle on Saturday.
The Saints won on the road the last two weeks at Minnesota (42-20) and Tennessee (22-17). That makes them 3-0 ATS away in their last three (including the Atlanta game) after starting the season 1-4 ATS. Green Bay should wrap up the No. 1 seed with a victory Sunday night and New Orleans will likely need a playoff win on the ‘frozen tundra’ to make the Super Bowl.
The Saints have been incredible at home, 6-0 SU and ATS with the average score 40-18. The ‘over’ is just 3-3 in those games with the last three totals in the 50s.
Quarterback Drew Brees is having a monster year, leading the league with 4,780 passing yards and 71.5 percent completions. He needs just 305 yards to break Dan Marino’s single season mark, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him throwing late with a big lead.
The Saints rushing offense has really improved at 125.4 YPG (ranked eighth). Rookie Mark Ingram (toe) is questionable after missing the last two games, but there’s plenty of depth with Pierre Thomas, Chris Ivory and Darren Sproles.
Coach Sean Payton’s offense has a bit more trouble with NFC South teams, averaging 25.8 PPG in the four games, almost seven PPG less than the season average (32.6 PPG). The ‘under’ is 3-1 in those contests and 13-3 in the last 16 overall for New Orleans in the division.
Atlanta did win the last game in New Orleans, 27-24 in OT in September 2010. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between the teams.
Weather is not a factor playing in the dome.