#NFL Line Watch Week 17
By: Art Aronson
Tuesday, December 27, 2016
#NFL Line Watch Week 17
Each week during the pro football season, AAA Sports looks
at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later,
and which total to watch as the week plays out.
Game to bet now
New England at Miami (+9.5)
The Dolphins are rolling, with 9 wins in their last 10 and a
berth in the playoffs. And the Fish have incentive to win this week – if things
fall right they move up to the 5 seed in the AFC playoffs and would not have to
play in Pittsburgh. But that doesn’t impress bettors, who took the opening line
(NE -6) and quickly bet it up 3½ points. It all has to do with Patriots
motivation. NE needs a win at 1 p.m. to lock down the overall No. 1 seed in the
AFC and make Oakland’s game (4:25 EST) at Denver (Broncos -2.5, BTW) moot. Last
season, you recall, Bill Belichick took his foot off the accelerator in Week 17
at Miami, lost home-field advantage, then lost in Denver in the AFC title game.
Not many see a repeat of that happening.
Game to wait on
Seattle at San Francisco (+9.5)
Oddsmakers and bettors both figure that the Seahawks will
lay waste to the Niners, especially after Seattle’s puzzling loss to the
Cardinals at home last week. Seattle is dealing with injuries everywhere –
safety Earl Thomas and wide receiver Tyler Lockett are both done for the
season, and now running back Thomas Rawls might not be a go against San
Francisco. Still, this is SF we’re talking about, and the 49ers are 1-6 at home
ATS this season. Bettors are still pounding Seattle, so there could be some
reluctant movement in the line before kickoff.
Total to watch
Houston at Tennessee (40)
Pardon Bill O’Brien if he has any flashbacks this week. A
year ago his Texans got waxed, 30-0, by the Chiefs in the wild card round of
the playoffs when QB Brian Hoyer had as bad a game (4 INTs) as anyone thought
possible. Twelve months later and O’Brien still has QB issues. Brock Osweiler
hasn’t been the answer, so the Texans will roll with backup Tom Savage for the
rest of the season. Savage game-managed Houston past Cincinnati last week and
gets another four quarters vs. Marcus Mariotta-less Tennessee this Sunday. The
Titans surprisingly stayed in the playoff into Week 16, but will be playing out
the string with veteran Matt Cassel under center in what looks like a
For more of Art Aronson click here.