Gary Patterson and the TCU Horned Frogs are 20/1 to win the BCS.
The TCU Horned Frogs are flying under the radar for the national title as they begin their season Saturday night against the Oregon State Beavers.
Bookmaker.com has TCU as big 13 ½-point favorites with a total of 50 ½-points. This game is being played at Cowboys Stadium in Dallas, not exactly a neutral site location with the close proximity to TCU.
TCU is ranked sixth in the opening AP poll after going 12-1 straight-up last year (8-4 against the spread). The only loss came in the Fiesta Bowl to undefeated Boise State, 17-10 as seven-point favorites. That game was swung by a fake punt by Boise State in the fourth quarter.
Boise State is ranked No. 3 this year and there’s only room for one school outside a major conference to make the national title game. Ironically, Boise State will leave the WAC and join TCU in the Mountain West Conference beginning next year.
The Horned Frogs are considered the class of the MWC, ahead of Utah and BYU. They’re 20/1 to win the national title.
Those odds seem to provide value with nine starters returning from an offense that scored 38.3 PPG (fifth in the country). Senior quarterback Andy Dalton is a dual threat passing (2,756 yards) and rushing (512 yards).
The running game also ranked fifth nationally, and it will be very good again with sophomores Ed Wesley and Matthew Tucker. Dalton, the school co-leader with 29 career wins, should also see a bump in his passing stats with veteran wide receivers and four returning offensive linemen.
The defense is what coach Gary Patterson’s team is most known for. The unit was first in the nation in yards allowed (239.7) and sixth in points (12.8). Gone are star defensive end Jerry Hughes and linebacker Daryl Washington, plus both starting cornerbacks.
However, all other starters return and the drop-off in productivity could be less than expected.
Pac-10 Oregon State is ranked No. 24 in the AP poll. It’s considered the third best team in the conference behind Oregon and USC. It has a very challenging non-conference slate with Boise State coming up on Sept. 25.
The Beavers went 8-5 SU and 7-5 ATS last season. They finished the regular season 6-2 SU (7-1 ATS) before a disappointing 44-20 Las Vegas Bowl loss to BYU as three-point ‘chalk.’
Quarterback Sean Canfield struggled in that game (19-of-40, 168 yards). The senior has moved on and is being replaced by sophomore Ryan Katz. Katz is only 6-foot-1, but has a strong arm and coach Mike Riley has a very good recent history of developing quarterbacks (Derek Anderson, Matt Moore, Lyle Moevao, Canfield).
Oregon State is best known for the brother tandem of running back Jacquizz Rodgers and wideout James Rodgers. Jacquizz ran for 1,440 yards last year and James had 91 catches (1,034 yards).
They’re the only Oregon State players from Texas, so they’ll be extra pumped. Both take a lot of pounding at just 5-foot-7 and James Rodgers is listed as probable with a shoulder injury.
The defense ranked 57th nationally in points allowed (25.0) last year. It let up 37 points and 489 yards in a loss at Oregon before the BYU debacle.
Stephen Paea was rated the conference’s best defensive lineman last season, but the pass rush was anemic (17 sacks). Linebacker is a big concern with David Pa'aluhi leaving the program and Keith Pankey recovering from a torn Achilles.
Three starters in the secondary return from the 84th ranked pass defense (235.1 YPG). They need more quarterback pressure to improve significantly.
This is the first meeting all-time between the teams. Oregon State is 5-15-1 in its last 21 September games.
Saturday’s game will begin at 4:30 p.m. (PT) and will be broadcast on ESPN. Weather is not a concern with the retractable roof at Cowboys Stadium.