Football Lines To Watch - Monday Market Report October 8
By: Don Best Staff
Monday, October 8, 2012
This week's early take on the football betting market includes a note from Don Best sports analysts Brian Blessing and Todd Fuhrman regarding fewer big line moves as the seasons move into the second week of October. Fuhrman credits that to bettors becoming more familiar with the teams on the collegiate and NFL level.
"As you get later into the year, the power numbers start to sharpen up," Fuhrman commented from the Don Best war room on Monday, "and everyone becomes more familiar with the teams.
"Outside of injuries, you're not going to see a 3-4 point movement that we've become accustomed to in the first four to five installments of our market reports."
One Big East gridiron contest that has seen a little movement to begin the week is Saturday's clash in Pittsburgh between the Panthers and Louisville Cardinals. The Cardinals opened as 1½-point chalk, and the spread has ballooned through the key number to Louisville -3½. Fuhrman expects some "buy-back" on Pitt before the end of the week with the spread closing below three.
San Jose State and Utah State started as a pick 'em, but the Spartans have been bet up to 2½-point home favorites by Monday afternoon. San Jose State is coming off a bye week, giving the Spartans a little extra time to prepare for the Aggies who are coming off an emotional 6-3 loss at BYU this past Friday. The Spartans and Aggies are a combined 10-0-1 against the spread heading into this WAC battle.
One of the biggest games on the Week 7 college football betting card takes place in Baton Rouge where the LSU Tigers host the South Carolina Gamecocks. Les Miles' Bayou Bengals started at -4 before that number shrunk to -2½. The Tigers are coming off a tough 14-6 setback at the Florida Gators who held the LSU offense in check all afternoon in the Swamp.
Meanwhile, South Carolina improved to 6-0 on the season by rolling past Georgia, 35-7. Fuhrman notes it's "nothing new" for USC head coach Steve Spurrier to get the better of the Bulldogs' Mark Richt.
Heading over the NFL, the Patriots head to Seattle to meet the Seahawks in a late-Sunday affair that has seen New England drop from -4½ to -3½ in early wagering. Both teams are coming off Week 5 wins as the Pats popped Denver 31-21 in Foxboro while the Seahawks muffled Cam Newton and the Panthers in Carolina, 16-12.
Fuhrman and Blessing both think the Seattle defense and the home-field advantage the Seahawks have could mean Tom Brady and the Patriots are in for a long afternoon.
Be sure to check back on Friday for to see how the market reacts the rest of the week, and stay ahead of the game by using the Don Best Pro Odds to give you all of the latest line moves and injury updates.