College Football Odds: 2010 Texas Tech

By: John Ryan | Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Tommy Tuberville

One time Auburn coach Tommy Tuberville takes over at Texas Tech.

The past is the past will be the motif for this year’s Red Raiders Football team and a bowl bid would be an excellent achievement. Last year, just days before the Alamo Bowl against Michigan State, the Texas Tech powers at be decide it would be best for their football program to fire their head coach Mike Leach. In the weeks leading up to this decision Leach was under fire for insubordination and player mistreatments so it seemed evident he was going to be fired, but not until after the Alamo Bowl. That firing certainly marked the end of an era.

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Texas Tech has grown to be known as a prolific high scoring offense and new HC Tommy Tuberville has already stated that he is gong to simply refine the offensive scheme that Mike Leach had in place. The big difference will be a slightly more balanced attack with an increased focus on the running game. Tuberville has also stated that he will utilize a fast break style of offense with a target of 100 plays executed per game. This is all good news for the team, but they are in a very tough division with Texas and Oklahoma and Texas A&M.

In 2009 Texas Tech was 13th of 120 teams in scoring differential at 14.5 points per game (PPG); ranked 7th in scoring at 37 PPG and 41st in points allowed with 22.5 PPG. Given their prolific high octane offense they rank 94th in time of possession at 28.91 minutes per game. I certainly see a big improvement in 3rd down conversion percentage over 2009 where they ranked 43rd converting 41.4% of their third down opportunities. The ability to run the ball more efficiently will be the dominant reason Texas Tech will have more scoring drives chewing more than 2 minutes of the clock. This in turn will give the defense a huge break and additional rest.

Be aware of some trends that Texas Tech has achieved given this new coaching regime and altered offensive attack. The first is that Texas tech is on an 18-6 OVER run when facing a strong offensive team gaining 6.25 or more yards per play. With a more balanced attack on offense and a stronger more rested defense no doubt scores will lower in these matchups. They are also on a poor 5-16 ATS run as road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points. Here again, these road matchups against A&M and Oklahoma may be a lot closer and offer a strong betting opportunity.

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Look for opponents that have suspect passing defense as potential opportunities as the Red Raiders are a solid 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) when they gain 8 to 8.5 net passing yards/attempt since 1992. They can still gain a lot of yards on a per attempt basis even with the added rushing feature in the offensive scheme. Under the leadership and experience of Tuberville fully trust that any any ARS losing streak will be short lived and look for opportunities where they have lost two  out of the past 3 ATS as they are a solid 30-15 ATS (+13.5 Units) in that role since 1992.

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