Disciplinary trouble has dogged Chip Kelly and the Oregon Ducks.
In 2007, Chip Kelly, then an offensive coordinator, knew he was an unfortunate knee injury to QB Dennis Dixon away from to the Oregon Ducks being a National Championship team. Last season, now as a head coach, he knew the foundation was set for 2010 to be the season in which the Ducks could really make a run at it again.
Behind an 8-1 straight up record in conference play a year ago, the Ducks rolled to the Rose Bowl. In spite of being blown away by Ohio State, it was clear that the offense, if it stayed intact, would be among the best in the nation in 2010.
Theoretically, things should have only gotten better with the departure of head coach Pete Carroll from Southern California and its impending sanctions from the NCAA.
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Then the Oregon program took a turn for the worse.
Quarterback Jeremiah Masoli was going to be a Heisman Trophy candidate this season. Built just as Dixon was, Masoli had a huge arm and could run like the wind if need be. Last season as a junior, he accounted for 2,815 yards and 28 total scores against just six INTs.
Having already been busted for burglary in his career, Masoli was nailed for marijuana possession during the recent offseason and was immediately dismissed from the team.
Unfortunately, this wasn't the only off-field problem the Ducks would have. Running back LaMichael James has been suspended for the season opener after pleading guilty to misdemeanor harassment charges. The same goes for kicker Rob Beard, who also pled guilty to misdemeanor harassment.
Linebacker Kiko Alonso was cited with drunken driving and suspended for the '10 campaign, while both defensive end Matt Simms and wide receiver Jamere Holland were dismissed from the team as well.
Once James comes back from his suspension, he should still be the key to an offense that ranked No. 8 in the land with 36.1 PPG in 2009. The Ducks averaged rushing for 231.7 YPG, largely thanks to James who broke all sorts of freshman rushing records at the U of O with his 1,546 yards on the ground.
The Ducks' defense was significantly underrated last year, and this unit is clearly going to have to step it up if Oregon has any hope of winning the Pac-10. The Ducks ranked No. 52 in the land in scoring at 23.8 PPG, which isn't all that bad if you can score almost two TDs per game more than that. The pace of Kelly's games are also incredibly quick, and there are a ton of extra possessions for the defense.
The out of conference schedule is very manageable for the Ducks. Only a trip to Rocky Top to take on the Tennessee Volunteers stands out as a game that could be a potential trap.
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Pac-10 play is going to be the big difference. Games at USC, Cal and Oregon State are probably going to yield at least a pair of losses, while home visits from UCLA, Washington, Arizona and Stanford could be hazardous as well.
Last season, Oregon covered its first five college football betting lines in conference play only to finish up the year going 1-3 ATS in its last four.
If you are looking for hot 'total' trends, keep in mind that the Ducks went 9-4 for 'over' bettors. They also posted a 6-2 'over' mark at home.
The fact that USC isn't eligible to win the Pac-10 this year still opens things up for Oregon quite a bit. Had some of these tougher games come at home, perhaps the Ducks would be heavier favorites to win the conference. However, at plus 250 they are still the co-favorites on the college football odds to win the conference and go to the Rose Bowl.
Whereas Oregon probably would have been somewhere in the neck of the woods of plus 1500 or so to win the BCS National Championship, it is now just plus 5000 and has a very slim chance of winning it all.