There’s a big Saturday in college basketball with nine of the top-10 teams in action. Most have done well covering spreads in their conferences, with some exceptions who are previewed below.
Here’s the Coaches Poll top 10 with their straight-up records, plus against the spread marks in-conference and out.
1) Syracuse (20-0 SU, 8-4 ATS Non-Conference, 5-2 ATS Big East)
2) Kentucky (18-1 SU, 3-10-1 ATS Non-Conference, 1-3 ATS SEC)
3) Baylor (17-1 SU, 4-2 ATS Non-Conference, 2-3 ATS Big 12)
4) Duke (16-2 SU, 6-8 ATS Non-Conference, 1-3 ATS ACC)
5) Missouri (17-1 SU, 5-3 ATS Non-Conference, 4-1 ATS Big 12)
6) Ohio State (16-1 SU, 4-4 ATS Non-Conference, 4-2 ATS Big Ten)
7) Kansas (15-3 SU, 6-6 ATS Non-Conference, 4-1 ATS Big 12)
8) North Carolina (16-3 SU, 8-6 ATS Non-Conference, 2-2 ATS ACC)
9) Michigan State (15-4 SU, 6-4 ATS Non-Conference, 4-2 ATS Big Ten)
10) Murray State (19-0 SU, 5-2-1 ATS Non-Conference, 3-4 ATS Ohio Valley)
Alabama Crimson Tide at No. 2 Kentucky Wildcats – 12:00 p.m. (ET) on CBS
Kentucky (18-1 SU, 4-13-1 ATS) is only 1-3 ATS in the SEC, but did get some good news last Tuesday versus Arkansas. That was an 86-63 home win and cover as 16½-point favorites, breaking an awful streak of 0-13-1 ATS in its prior 14 games with a spread.
Freshman Anthony Davis scored 27 points last game, helping to ‘push’ the 149-point total. It was the Wildcats’ highest output since December 31. The ‘under’ is 4-1-1 in their last six games, scoring 73.3 PPG, and they can’t count on Davis (13.8 PPG) exploding like that again.
The Crimson Tide (13-5 SU, 7-7 ATS) were ranked No. 12 in late November, but three non-conference losses in December knocked them out of the polls. This is a talented team with forwards Tony Mitchell (13.7 PPG) and JaMychal Green (13.7 PPG), plus guard Trevor Releford (12.5 PPG).
Alabama ranks first in the SEC in scoring defense (56.4 PPG), but just ninth in offense (66.3 PPG). The offense was dormant the last two games in losses against Mississippi State (56-52) and Vanderbilt (69-59). The team is now 2-2 SU and ATS in the SEC after winning and covering its first two.
Kentucky won and covered the last meeting between the teams, 72-58 in the SEC tournament last March. Alabama was 3-0 ATS in the previous three.
No. 5 Missouri Tigers at No. 3 Baylor Bears – 2:00 p.m. (ET) on ESPN
Baylor (17-1 SU, 6-5 ATS) started the week undefeated and ranked No. 3, but had a Monday loss (92-74) at Kansas. The frontline of Perry Jones III, Quincy Miller and Quincy Acy range from 6-foot-7 to 6-foot-11, but they were outmuscled by Kansas on the boards (36-21).
The Bears were 6½-point ‘dogs and are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven (2-3 ATS in the Big 12). Another loss will really drop them in the rankings, but there’s comfort in returning to Ferrell Center in Waco (10-0 SU, 2-1 ATS mark).
Missouri (17-1 SU, 9-4 ATS) has won three straight (3-0 ATS) since its disappointing 75-59 loss at Kansas State on January 7. The last two were at home against Texas (84-73) and Texas A&M (70-51), but there was also a big road win at Iowa State (76-69 as 4-point favorites).
This is the nation’s fourth-highest scoring offense (83.1 PPG) under first-year coach Frank Haith. That number is much lower in Big 12 play (75.2 PPG), with the ‘under’ 4-1. The Tigers are giving up a lot of size against Baylor and will have to take (and make) 3-pointers.
Missouri is 4-0 ATS (3-1 SU) in the previous four games against Baylor. The ‘under’ is 3-0 in the last three with an average combined score of just 131.7 points.
Florida State Seminoles at No. 4 Duke Blue Devils – 4:00 p.m. (ET) on ESPN
The Blue Devils (16-2 SU, 7-11 ATS) dropped to 1-3 ATS in the ACC after a 91-73 win as 21½-point favorites over Wake Forest on Thursday. They led by 26 points (84-58) with 5:26 left, but Wake ended on a meaningless 15-7 run, showing how hard it is to cover these large spreads.
Duke will be shooting for its 46th consecutive home win on Saturday, which would tie a school record. That includes nine this year (4-5 ATS). The ‘over’ is 6-3 in those contests, scoring 86.6 PPG.
Florida State (12-6 SU, 9-7 ATS) is 3-0 SU and ATS in its last three, including home wins over North Carolina (90-57) and Maryland (84-70). The result against the Tar Heels was surprising as it was their worst defeat since 2003.
The Seminoles have had much less success in road and neutral site games (2-5 SU and ATS). However, they are battled tested playing currently ranked teams in Connecticut, Michigan State, Harvard and Florida. They also just won their last road game at Virginia Tech on January 10, 63-59 as 4-point ‘dogs.
Florida State is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings against Duke, including a 68-67 upset as an 8½-point underdog at Cameron in February 2007.