The New Year is here and that means mostly conference games in college basketball where wins are tougher to come by and covers could be as well.
Several teams have had little trouble straight-up or against the spread. Creighton (11-2 SU, 7-2 ATS), Georgetown (12-1 SU, 7-1 ATS), Indiana (13-1 SU, 8-1 ATS), Murray State (14-0 SU, 7-2-1 ATS), Ohio (12-1 SU, 6-1 ATS) and Saint Louis (12-2 SU, 8-2 ATS), are six such teams, with Georgetown and Indiana previewed in mid-week games later in this article.
There are several solid ATS teams that have struggled getting wins. These include Dartmouth (3-11 SU, 5-1-1 ATS), Delaware (5-6 SU, 5-1 ATS), Idaho (7-7 SU, 7-3 ATS) and Texas El-Paso (7-7 SU, 8-2 ATS).
Finally, there have been plenty of teams to fade regardless of record. Clemson (8-6 SU, 2-7 ATS) George Washington (5-8 SU, 2-9 ATS), Kentucky (13-1 SU, 3-9-1 ATS), Texas Tech (7-5 SU, 1-7 ATS), Villanova (7-7 SU, 2-99 ATS) and UC Davis (1-12 SU, 2-9-1 ATS) all fall into that category.
Monday starts an intriguing week of games with Texas A&M visiting No. 7 Baylor and No. 24 Virginia at LSU. Both games are at 7:00 p.m. (ET).
Texas A&M (9-3 SU, 1-5 ATS) hasn’t gotten a cover since its opening game against Liberty. It has trouble scoring (64.8 PPG), but only allows 55.8 PPG. Baylor (13-0 SU, 4-2 ATS) is loaded with talent, scoring 77.6 PPG and allowing 58.8 PPG, The Bears are 13½-point home favorites with a total of 124½. The underdog is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings between the teams.
Virginia (12-1 SU, 6-2 ATS) is a 3-point road favorite over LSU (10-3 SU, 8-2 ATS) with a tiny total of 111½-points. This a late non-conference tilt between ACC and SEC foes. They are both heavy ‘under’ teams this year at 7-1 for Virginia and 8-2 for LSU. LSU is looking for revenge after losing 64-50 as 5 ½-point road ‘dogs last January.
Wisconsin Badgers host Spartans on Tuesday
Wisconsin (12-3 SU, 9-3 ATS) used to be one of the nation’s most feared home teams, winning 23 in a row before losing to Marquette 61-54 on December 3. A more shocking loss just came last Saturday, 72-65 as huge 17-point favorites against Iowa. The No. 11 Badgers rely a lot on 3-point shooting and a miserable 3-of-28 effort (10.7 percent) killed them against the Hawkeyes.
Wisconsin leads the nation in scoring defense (46.2 PPG). The ‘under’ is 9-3 despite going well ‘over’ the 124-point total against Iowa.
Michigan State (13-2 SU, 8-4 SU) has won 13 straight games after opening with losses against ACC powerhouses North Carolina and Duke. The schedule has been easier lately, although the Spartans did beat tough Indiana (80-65) and they are now No. 17 in the Coaches Poll after starting unranked. MSU leads the Big Ten in rebounding margin (10.5 per game) and Draymond Green and company will test the Badger big men.
Two top-25 matchups highlight Hump Day
The Big East will be in the spotlight on Wednesday when No. 13 Marquette visits No. 12 Georgetown. The Golden Eagles (12-2 SU, 3-7-1 ATS) are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven, losing two recent games at LSU (67-59) and home to Vanderbilt (74-57). They survived their conference opener yesterday against struggling Villanova, 81-77 as 10-point home favorites.
Georgetown (12-1 SU, 7-1 ATS) has won 10 straight games, although did fail to cover for the first time last Saturday, 49-40 home win over Providence as 13 ½-point favorites. The biggest win (71-68) of the year was on the road over then No. 4 Louisville on December 28.
The in-state battle between Kansas and Kansas State is always one of the best in college basketball. It will be even better Wednesday with each ranked in the top-25 and this being the Big 12 opener for both teams.
Kansas State (11-1 SU, 5-3 ATS) is up to No. 25 after low expectations and is scoring more this year (77 PPG) despite losing Jacob Pullen (20.2 PPG). Kansas (10-3 SU, 6-6 ATS) is ranked No. 18, but has questionable depth outside of forward Thomas Robinson (17.7 PPG, 12.2 RPG) and guard Tyshawn Taylor (15.3 PPG, 5.2 APG).
Big Ten contender Indiana hosts Michigan on Thursday
The No. 15 Indiana Hoosiers (13-1 SU) are a bettor’s dream with that 8-1 ATS mark and have gone from nice story in the Big Ten to conference contender. Five guys score in double-digits and they’re perfect at home, incredibly beating both No. 1 Kentucky and No. 2 Ohio State there. The OSU win was last Saturday (74-70), with the only loss at Michigan State (80-65) the prior game.
Michigan (12-2 SU, 6-5 ATS) has won seven straight, going 4-2 ATS in the lined games. The schedule has been pretty easy lately, opening the Big Ten with home wins over Minnesota (61-56) and Penn State (71-53). The No. 16 Wolverines lost their only true road game this year, 70-58 at Virginia back on November 29.
The ‘over’ is 8-2-1 for Michigan despite ranking seventh in the Big Ten in scoring offense (70.9 PPG) and fourth in defense (59.9 PPG). Low totals have played a big part.