Brad Stevens and Butler take on mighty Duke in Monday’s championship.
"And David put his hand in his bag, and took thence a stone, and slang it, and smote the Philistine in his forehead, that the stone sunk into his forehead; and he fell upon his face to the earth." 1 Samuel 17:49
Quoting Bible scripture is certainly appropriate at this holy time of the year. The passage above is also especially fitting for the two college basketball programs that will square off in Monday night's championship.
Oddsmakers see Monday's battle a bit closer than they saw the clash between the Israelites and Philistines a few thousand years ago. Duke, in the role of Goliath, opened as a six or 6 ½-point favorite over Butler's David. That number has already moved to minus seven on the Blue Devils.
The 'total' for the game is in the 129-130 range.
The difference in the history of these two basketball programs is huge. However, the statistical disparities between the two teams this year are not so great.
If we jump into our way-back machines and travel to before the college season's first jump ball, Duke (34-5 SU, 23-14-1 ATS) and Butler (33-4, 17-20 ATS) were viewed as equal adversaries according to voters in the AP and coaches polls. The Blue Devils were preseason No. 9/8 with the Bulldogs ranking 11/10.
Both teams shoot well from the field. Butler's 44.5 percent just edges Duke's 44.1 in the column. The Blue Devils (76.1 percent) and Bulldogs (73.8 percent) are among the best in the nation from the free throw line. Butler ranks ninth in the country in points allowed per game, 59.3, with Duke not far behind at 61 even.
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Where the two squads differ is in scoring and rebounding. The Blue Devils have the advantage in each.
Duke's 77.4 per game scoring average for the season sits directly on the 78 points it has scored in the last two games to reach the championship. The Devils throttled West Virginia in Saturday's semifinal game, 78-57, to easily cover the three-point line. The final score just tripped 'over' the 131 points, the second consecutive Duke 'over' after beginning the tourney with three 'unders.'
A big part of the ACC champs' scoring on Saturday came from behind the arc. Duke sank 13 of the 25 three-point attempts it took to account for half of its 78 points at game's end. The Blue Devils are hitting 43.3 percent of their treys at the Dance, a little above the 38.7 percent season clip.
Duke averages almost 39 rebounds per game on the season, and has held the edge on the board in all five tournament contests.
Butler, meanwhile, is scoring under 62 points per game in the tourney, more than seven per game less than its season average. The Bulldogs mustered just 52 in their two-point win and cover over Michigan State on Saturday. The 'under' (126) cashed for the fourth consecutive Butler battle.
The Bulldogs' season-long effort on the boards has produced a 32.6 rebounds per game. Butler lost the glass battle in its wins over UTEP, Murray St. and Syracuse, but managed to flip that with rebounding advantages over both Kansas St. and the Spartans.
The game figures to be decided by Duke's ability to nullify Butler's strength, which is its half-court defense. Without that, David won't have enough stones to win this fight.
Brad Stevens and the Bulldogs will have the crowd strongly behind them in this "Hoosiers" come-to-life, with Gordon Hayward reprising the part of Jimmy Chitwood. Mike Krzyzewski and the Blue Devils have played Goliath before and understand how important it will be to take the crowd out of the fight. It should make for an epic championship game from Lucas Oil Stadium once it's tipped at 6:21 p.m. (PT).