The respective fates of New Orleans point guard Chris Paul and Orlando center Dwight Howard are getting closer to a resolution and each will have a dramatic effect on the NBA Future odds.
The latest update from Monday morning has a Paul trade to the Los Angeles Clippers being submitted to the league. According to an ESPN report, the returning players would be Eric Gordon, Chris Kaman, Al-Farouq Aminu and Minnesota’s unprotected first-round pick in 2012.
Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports is reporting via twitter that Gordon (22.3 PPG last year) is not included and that likely means Eric Bledsoe instead. That makes a huge difference in whether this is a better package than the Hornets would have received in the three-way deal with the Lakers and Houston shot down by Commissioner David Stern last week.
Paul added to the Clippers would give them a good nucleus of Blake Griffin, free agent addition Caron Butler and center DeAndre Jordan, a restricted free agent who just signed an offer sheet with Golden State. Their NBA title odds are currently at +1500, which would be very enticing if both Jordan and Gordon stay.
The Lakers are up in arms about the vetoed Paul trade in which they would have relinquished Pau Gasol (to Houston) and Lamar Odom (to New Orleans). Odom then demanded a trade after it fell through and was very surprisingly dealt to defending champion Dallas. The 6-foot-10 forward will somewhat make up for the loss of center Tyson Chandler to New York, with the Mavs currently at +800 odds.
The Lakers can’t justify their current +400 odds without Odom, but are making a big play for Howard. Orlando reportedly wants both Gasol and Andrew Bynum, with L.A. preferring just the latter along with the $8.9 million trade exception received from Dallas. A trio of Howard, Gasol and Kobe Bryant would take away the sting of the Paul fiasco and push the Lakers' odds closer to the league-leading Miami Heat (+200).
Oklahoma City (+500) is quietly moving up the odds board, not because of any moves it has made, but due to the Lakers and Mavericks changes.
Chicago (+600) is only behind Miami among Eastern Conference teams and is a long shot to acquire Howard. The possible signing of former Detroit swingman Richard Hamilton could be its biggest move.
The Knicks (+2000) acquisition of Chandler makes them very strong up front with Amare Stoudemire and Carmelo Anthony. However, their odds haven’t moved much as the release of Chauncey Billups puts the backcourt into question.
LeBron James favored to win league MVP
Season props have already started to trickle out and league MVP has a familiar favorite with LeBron James (+250). He won the award in both 2009 and 2010 while with Cleveland, with Chicago’s Derrick Rose winning last year.
Rose (+350) averaged 25 PPG and 7.7 APG in earning MVP. Kevin Durant (+290) led the NBA in scoring last year at 27.7 PPG and while his quiet demeanor sometimes hurts his ability to win this type of award, he should get a lot more attention if Oklahoma City gets off to a fast start as expected.
Bryant (+500) has only shockingly won one MVP in his brilliant career, but isn’t getting any younger at age 33. His 33.9 average minutes played last year were his lowest since 1997-98.
Howard finished second last year in the voting and his +500 odds this season are unsettled with his destination unknown. However, he’s likely to have an adjustment period playing either for the Lakers or Nets (two most likely landing spots), making these odds overvalued.
Derrick Williams tapped as top rookie
The rookie class has had very little fanfare with most of the NBA news centering around the lockout ending and the ensuing free agent frenzy.
The draft class itself also lacks marquee names with Duke point guard Kyrie Irving the No. 1 pick to Cleveland followed by Arizona power forward Derrick Williams going to Minnesota.
Williams (+280) is the favorite in the odds, followed by Irving (+400). The former isn’t even guaranteed to be a starter in a crowded Minny frontcourt that includes Kevin Love and Michael Beasley. Plus, he may have to play a lot of small forward which is an unfamiliar role for him.
Irving will definitely start at point, but he played just 11 games in college last year after suffering a toe injury. That rust will be compounded by playing on a terrible Cavs team that won’t score a lot and will keep his assists down.
Sacramento’s Jimmer Fredette and Utah’s Enes Kanter are both +500, but each will start on the bench. Minnesota’s Ricky Rubio (+800) looks like good value with his great passing and experience playing professionally in Spain.
Charlotte’s Kemba Walker (+800) is another player with a lot of value. He should start from day one and has tremendous confidence, especially after leading UConn to the national championship.