help from our trusted well-oiled database, let’s examine a handful of
time-tested proven theories that have lined our pockets during the opening
round of playoffs since 1991. Here is what the machine has to say.
No. 8 Seeds Are Behind The 8-Ball
the most part, No. 8 seeds in the NBA playoffs (the Chicago Bulls and the
Portland Trail Blazers this season) are teams that likely scratched and clawed
their way into the post-season. Not good enough to be seriously
considered threats against top-seeded opponents but just barely better than the
dregs of the league.
assured, their life expectancy is not long at all, as they’ve lost over 71% of
time (56-146 SU) in games against No. 1 seeds since 1996. In fact, only
the 1996 New York Knicks, the 2007 Golden State Warriors and the 2012
Philadelphia 76ers were good enough to pull the rug on top seeded foes and
advance to Round Two of the playoff.
you can virtually write them off in games against No. 1 seeds that are off
back-to-back SU and ATS wins. These guys scratch out of the match with
alarming regularity, going 4-27 SU and 10-21 ATS, including 0-17 SU and 3-14
ATS whenever the 8-ballers are off a spread loss of 4 or more points in their
last game. Be aware.
Upset Losers Are Winners
you read that right... it’s not an oxymoron. Instead, it’s a powerful
handicapping edge. It occurs whenever a team was upset as a favorite in
an opening round game and is at home in the game immediately thereafter.
confirmed by the fact that they are 94-25 SU and 71-44-4 ATS, a rock solid
number 61.7 winning spread angle. And if these upset victims happen to be
a No. 1, 2, or 3 seed they are a jaw-dropping 50-6 SU and 37-17-2 ATS in these
be afraid of these chalkbusters. That’s because they don’t lose their
composure. Instead they almost always dig down deep and respond with aplomb in
games after being embarrassed.
in the right role, double-digit underdogs do well in opening round contests,
especially when playing off a playoff loss. These overweight puppies are
35-20-2 ATS in this role.
if these same guys lost as a double-digit dog in their last game they zoom to
26-12-1 ATS, including 18-5 ATS against non-division foes.
these dogs are not exactly pedigree puppies but the fact of the matter is they
tend to come up big against disinterested favorites not capable of chopping
And Down Goes Frazier
psyche of teams that are not playing well comes immediately to the surface
during the opening round of the NBA playoffs. That’s evidenced by the fact that
teams riding a three game-exact loss skein are wobbly and oftentimes one punch
away from being counted out.
glass-like jaws, these swirling teams are just 47-65 SU and 47-61-4 ATS away
from home this round, including 7-11 SU and 6-12 ATS in lid-lifters.
of all, road dogs of more than six points on a three game exact losing skid are
3-29 SU and 10-22 ATS on their way to the canvas.
just an FYI: teams that lose the first three games in an opening round series
are just 12-23 SU and 13-19-3 ATS in Game Fours, including 6-15-2 ATS as dogs
of four or more points.
champions (the Cleveland Cavaliers in this case) are 78-34 SU and 62-46-4 ATS
overall in opening round games the next season, including 17-8 SU and 16-8-1
ATS in Game One of Round One the following season.
they are13-3-1 ATS following a double-digit loss during opening round games,
and also a spotless 8-0 ATS when taking more than five points in this round.
the opening round of the 2017 NBA playoffs.
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