NBA Odds: Knicks soaring 'over' the total

By: David Schwab | Sunday, April 3, 2011
Basketball

The ’over’ is 10-4 in New York’s last 14 outings.

There are less than two weeks left in the NBA regular season as teams continue to jockey for position prior to the start of the playoffs. There are 10 teams that have already clinched a spot and 10 teams are still battling it out for the other six positions.

Each squad has about six games left to play, but it is not too late to capitalize on the value that the ‘total line’ has offered this year.

Scoring trends this season have slightly favored the ‘under’ through Saturday’s action, with 631 of 1,217 games staying ‘under’ the total (51.9 percent). Games ending in regulation have stayed ‘under’ 54.6 percent of the time, while 68 of the 82 games that have gone to overtime went ‘over’ the total.

The Denver Nuggets, even without Carmelo Anthony, remain the highest scoring team in the league with an average of 107.5 points a game. They are giving up an average of 102.8 points, making them a prime candidate as the perfect team when it comes to playing the ‘over’.

Unfortunately the oddsmakers are privy to this information as well, and have adjusted the total line for Nuggets’ games accordingly. The total has actually stayed ‘under’ in 39 of their 74 games this season (52.7 percent).

The Dallas Mavs are averaging 99.8 points per game and are allowing 96 PPG. The Mavericks have seen the ‘over’ cash in 43 of 76 games (56.6 percent). However, the ‘under’ is 6-2 in the club’s last eight outings.

San Antonio, which still has the best record in the league despite its current six-game losing streak, has seen 55.3 percent of its games go ‘over’ the total. The Spurs are averaging 103.4 points a game and are outscoring their opponents by 5.5 points. Their recent injury woes have only enhanced this value, as seven of their last eight games have gone ‘over’ the total.

The New Orleans Hornets and the Milwaukee Bucks have both enjoyed ‘under’ success. The total has stayed ‘under’ in 49 of the Hornets’ 76 games this season (64.5 percent). The total has stayed ‘under’ in 61.8 percent of the Bucks’ 76 games this season. Recent trends bear these numbers out, with five of their last eight games staying ‘under’ the total as well.

Looking for ‘over’ teams? The New York Knicks are the second highest scoring team in the league, averaging 106.2 PPG, and 28th in points allowed at 105.8. The total has gone ‘over’ in 10 of their last 14 games, including their last five.

A team that has been trending ‘under’ lately is the Boston Celtics. They are averaging 96.6 points a game this season, but have only averaged 88.4 points over their last 13 games. The total line has yet to fully adjust for this downturn in production, as 11 of these games have stayed ‘under’ the total.

 
 
 
 
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