The New York Knicks are 15-5 to the ’under’ so far, tops in the NBA.
Scoring in the NBA has been a hot topic this season, especially for people who love betting the total.
A Don Best article written a few weeks ago highlighted that league scoring was at 94.6 PPG, down 5.0 percent from last year’s regular season (99.6 PPG). That was through January 10 with the ‘under’ also hitting at 59.1 percent.
Scoring has stayed roughly the same since then, but lower totals have caused a lot of ‘overs’ and the ‘under’ for the year is down to 56.6 percent.
New York Knicks an ‘under’ dream
New York is the leading ‘under’ team at 15-5 (75 percent). Phoenix (14-6), Philadelphia (14-7), Toronto (13-7), Orlando (13-7), Sacramento (13-7) and Boston (11-6) also have a major lean that way.
It’s been an awful season for New York at 7-13 straight up, 7.5-games back of Philadelphia in the Atlantic Division. The Knicks' 5-15 against the spread mark is also the NBA’s worst and coach Mike D’Antoni could be fired shortly.
Scoring has been the main issue at 93.7 PPG, ranked just 17th overall. That’s after finishing second in the league last year (106.5 PPG). Leading scorer Carmelo Anthony (23.6 PPG) has been playing banged up and missed the last two games, Amare Stoudemire (17.7 PPG) is struggling and overall scoring depth is also poor.
Philadelphia has been an excellent home team at 11-2 SU, with 11 of those games going ‘under.’ The is the leading defensive team in the league (86.1 PPG) under coach Doug Collins, but even stingier at home (81.2 PPG). Having an easy home schedule, with just four opponents currently over .500, has helped the cause.
Boston is another team going ‘under’ at home (10-2). The Celtics are third overall in the league defensively (87.9 PPG), but that number is much lower in the 12 games at TD Garden (82.7 PPG), compared to the seven on the road (96.9 PPG).
Sacramento has the ‘under’ at 10-2 away. The offensively challenged Kings rank just 24th overall (90.6 PPG), but scoring is much worse away (86.8 PPG) versus at Power Balance Pavilion (96.4 PPG).
Denver Nuggets lead ‘over’ brigade
Denver is the leading ‘over’ team, but at just a 60 percent clip (12-8). There are only seven teams with more ‘overs’ than ‘unders’ with Milwaukee (11-8), Miami (12-9), Golden State (10-8) and the Los Angeles Clippers (10-8) next on the list.
Denver leads the NBA in scoring (105.8 PPG) and is 27th in points allowed (99.2 PPG). Danilo Gallinari is the leading scorer at only at 17.9 PPG, but there’s a remarkable six guys in double-digits. The Nuggets strangely score even more on the road (108.1 PPG), helping the ‘over’ go 8-2 there.
Milwaukee owes its ‘over’ mark due to home play (6-1-1). Team scoring is at 99.8 PPG at the Bradley Center compared to 90.6 PPG away. The ‘over’ is also 5-0 in the Bucks’ last five games overall, three of those at home.
Other home and away disparities
Memphis has the ‘over’ 7-2 at home and the ‘under’ 10-1 away. Scoring has been a big 102.3 PPG at FedExForum, while just 85.8 PPG away. The offensive road production needs to improve dramatically if the Grizzlies hope to make the playoffs.
Detroit has the ‘over’ 8-3 at home and the ‘under’ 9-2 on the road. This the lowest scoring team in the NBA (85.6 PPG) and while the Pistons aren’t getting great production at home (89.8 PPG), they are downright terrible away (81.5 PPG).
Let’s go streaking
The L.A. Clippers are 5-1 ‘over’ their last six games. Chris Paul came back four games ago from injury and has scored 51 total points the last two in high scoring wins at Denver (109-105) and home to Oklahoma City (112-100).
Washington is 4-1 ‘under’ in its last five, 3-1 since Randy Wittman took over head coaching duties from Flip Saunders.
Minnesota has seen the ‘over’ go 6-1 in its last seven. The Timberwolves’ defense has been shredded for at least 106 points in four of those contests, losing three of them.
Charlotte finally scored some points last Saturday versus Washington, but still lost 102-99. That game went ‘over,’ with the ‘under’ 5-0-1 in Charlotte’s previous six, not scoring more than 89 points.