As promised a few weeks ago, we would be providing periodic updates of the “real MLB standings” that handicappers and wagerers find most valuable...performance vs. the Money Line and the Run Line.
We have had just over a month’s worth of results to digest and many of the numbers look similar to the ones we first posted in mid-April.
Still, it’s a good idea to not only have an overview of season-long performance, but also more-recent results to account for current form, which are reflected in an additional calculation. Following are the unit standings vs. the Money Line through action of Thursday, May 3. Results from April 18-May 3 are in parentheses.
AL WEST
Texas +609 (+77)
Oakland +283 (+434)
Seattle -215 (-304)
LA Angels -1241 (-628)
AL CENTRAL
Cleveland +232 (+216)
Chicago White Sox -146 (-177)
Detroit -454 (-877)
Kansas City -480 (-46)
Minnesota -905 (-547)
AL EAST
Tampa Bay +1071 (+1110)
Baltimore +1049 (+584)
Toronto +166 (+106)
NY Yankees -320 (-275)
Boston -400 (-50)
NL WEST
LA Dodgers +861 (+43)
Arizona +49 (-208)
Colorado +22 (+266)
San Francisco -97 (-49)
San Diego -730 (-111)
NL CENTRAL
St. Louis +532 (+21)
Pittsburgh +74 (+208)
Houston +41 (+202)
Cincinnati -150 (-207)
Chicago Cubs -410 (-9)
Milwaukee -623 (-463)
NL EAST
Washington +559 (-21)
NY Mets +251 (-225)
Atlanta +109 (+179)
Philadelphia -434 (-47)
Miami -537 (-382)
Stark about the numbers above in the AL is how the Angeles continue to burn investors. Even accounting for a three-game sweep at midweek over the slumping Twins, the Halos are nonetheless an MLB-worst -1241 units on the through May 3, and have continued to underachieve over the past two-and-a-half weeks since April 17, reflected in a -628 ML performance that span.
Conversely, Baltimore continues to provide outstanding value, now at +1049 units for the season and +589 the past two-and-a-half weeks. Although the O’s aren't even the hottest team in their division at the moment, as surging Tampa Bay, on the heels of an astounding +1110 ML performance since mid-April, is now an MLB-best +1071 on the Money Line entering weekend action.
Meanwhile, the National League board has changed little over since mid-April, with the Dodgers, Cardinals and Nationals continuing to offer good value. The biggest movers since mid-April are both on the negative side, with Milwaukee (-463 since April 17) and Miami (-382 since mid-April despite the three-game sweep earlier this week at San Francisco).
Following are Run Line standings by division, also through May 3. Results from April 18-May 3 are in parentheses.
AL WEST
Texas +396 (+280)
Seattle +299 (+50)
Oakland -589 (+64)
LA Angels -917 (-887)
AL CENTRAL
Chicago White Sox +655 (+350)
Kansas City +59 (+110)
Cleveland -493 (-54)
Minnesota -565 (+26)
Detroit -688 (-22)
AL EAST
Baltimore +1337 (+753)
Toronto +649 (+74)
Tampa Bay +29 (-546)
Boston -363 (-454)
NY Yankees -710 (-462)
NL WEST
Arizona +955 (+187)
LA Dodgers +578 (+429)
San Francisco +251 (+97)
Colorado -124 (+326)
San Diego -740 (-124)
NL CENTRAL
St. Louis +1146 (+557)
Houston +703 (+513)
Pittsburgh +240 (-32)
Chicago Cubs -402 (-60)
Cincinnati -494 (-277)
Milwaukee -1014 (-615)
NL EAST
Philadelphia -115 (+104)
Atlanta -172 (-86)
Washington -215 (-157)
Miami -598 (-177)
NY Mets -837 (-1042)
Results can vary from the Run Line to the Money Line because of the one-run decisions that can make a winning side a losing side (and vice versa) in this wager. As is often the case, there are some more pronounced numbers to review in the RL results.
Still, much like the case with the Money Line in the AL, the Angels continue to be a poor investment, especially so since mid-April while posting a numbing -877 units on the Run Line. Tampa Bay, with a succession of one-run wins, is not lately providing the value on the Run Line that it does on the Money Line (the Rays have been -546 on the RL since April 17 despite their straight-up winning ways). The Yankees (-462 since April 17) and Red Sox (-434 since mid-April) have also provided poor value on the Run Line in the past two-and-a-half weeks.
Meanwhile, look again at Baltimore, an MLB-best +1337 units on the RL for the season, and +753 since mid-April.
The most interesting Run Line performance numbers in the National League are in the Central Division, where St. Louis (+1146 units for the season and +557 since mid-April) continues to set a brisk pace, with surprising Houston (+703 overall and +513 since April 17) also providing good value. Again, however, Milwaukee is underachieving, -1014 on the season (-615 over the past two-and-a-half weeks).
The most-glaring recent Run Line deficiency, however, has been with the Mets, a staggering -1042 since mid-April.