Jacoby Ellsbury returned to the Red Sox lineup last week in Boston.
The Toronto Blue Jays are quietly one of the hottest MLB betting teams in the American League. They host the Boston Red Sox Wednesday night in the middle game of a three-game set.
Toronto (59-52) is 11-4 in its last 15 games pending Tuesday’s opener with Boston. Team ERA has decreased in the second half (3.14) from the first (4.30). Scoring has increased from 4.53 to 5.59 runs per game.
The Blue Jays showed they can win multiple ways in a weekend home sweep over Tampa Bay. They had a 2-1 win on Friday and a 1-0 near no-hitter by Brandon Morrow on Sunday. Toronto belted eight home runs in a 17-11 slugfest on Saturday.
The wild card is a long shot at 8 ½ games behind Tampa Bay, but the Blue Jays are still dangerous. They’re 11-1 in their last 12 games against the AL East and have 24 games left with Boston, Tampa Bay and the Yankees.
Shaun Marcum (10-5, 3.44 ERA) will take the mound for Toronto. He last pitched on Wednesday at the Yankees, allowing five earned runs in six innings in a 5-1 loss. He gets a full week of rest after Thursday and Monday off days.
The 28 year-old righty is Toronto’s oldest regular starter. His splits are much more favorable at home (4-2, 2.37 ERA) than away (6-3, 4.35 ERA). He has seven quality home starts in nine tries, with the other two near-misses.
Marcum has been masterful in home and away starts against Boston this year. He’s surrendered just one run and six hits in 14 innings. He’s an impressive 5-2 with a 2.91 ERA lifetime against Boston.
The Red Sox (64-49) are treading water. They split a four-game home series with Cleveland, and then split another four-game set at the Yankees. Boston is still alive in the division (six games back) and wild card (4 ½ back), but it needs to start winning series.
Second baseman Dustin Pedroia will miss this series as he continues to recover from his foot injury. Kevin Youkilis (thumb) is already out for the season. They’re the emotional leaders of the team and huge cogs of the offense.
Boston is scoring 3.68 runs per game in the second half (ninth in the AL). That figure was 5.46 in the first half (tops in the AL). The ‘under’ is 3-0-2 in its last five games.
Clay Buchholz (12-5, 2.66 ERA) gets the start for Boston. He’s been the ace of the staff along with Jon Lester. Buchholz has made four starts since coming back from a hamstring injury. He allowed five earned runs over four innings in the first game, but has a 2.02 ERA in the last three (Boston going 3-0).
The 25-year-old righty has taken his newfound maturity on the road with a 7-2 record (2.52 ERA). Boston is 8-2 in his road starts this year and 13-3 in his last 16 road starts overall.
Buchholz has one start against Toronto this year. He surrendered one run over eight innings in a 2-1 road win on April 27. He’s 3-2 with a 2.15 ERA in five career starts at the Rogers Centre.
Boston is 7-2 against Toronto this year and 5-1 in Toronto. Boston had five of the wins this year by two runs or less, so the Blue Jays haven’t been completely overmatched.
Toronto outfielder Vernon Wells (dislocated toe) is questionable for this series. He’s rebounded this season with 22 homers, 60 RBIs and an .848 OPS.
First pitch on Wednesday is 4:07 p.m. (PT). Weather should be beautiful in the upper 70s.