MLB Odds: Does pitching beat hitting?

By: Barry Daniels | Monday, July 5, 2010

Royals righty Zack Greinke is 3-0 in his career against Seattle with a 1.86 ERA.

They say good pitching will beat good hitting. Bettors will get the opportunity to see if that saying is true in this series between the Kansas City Royals and Seattle Mariners at Seattle's spacious Safeco Field.


The Royals bring a league-leading .282 batting average into this series and also have the most hits in the league at 801. The offensive onslaught has enabled the Royals to go 7-3 in their last 10 games, including three straight series victories against the Angels, White Sox and Cardinals.

Seattle brings its 3.86 ERA into this series, which ranks eighth lowest in baseball. The Mariners return home after going 4-5 during a nine-game road swing that saw them lose two of three against the Brewers and Tigers, but take two of three from the Yankees.

Kansas City will send Zack Greinke (4-8, 3.94 ERA) to the hill in Tuesday's middle game. Breezing along for seven innings last Wednesday against the White Sox, he suddenly allowed five straight hits and five runs in the eighth inning. However, the Royals did win the game 7-6 as 125 home favorites.

Nevertheless, the Royals are just 5-12 in Greinke's first 17 starts this MLB baseball season, with the ‘over' going 10-7.

Greinke is 3-0 with a miniscule 1.86 ERA in his career against the Mariners. The right-hander has already faced Seattle once this season (April 27) but was not involved in the decision after blanking the Mariners on six hits through seven innings spanning a season-high 119 pitches. He did not walk a batter and fanned five.

Kansas City went on to lose that game 3-2 as a hefty 195 home favorite. The combined five runs dipped ‘under' the 7 ½-run closing total.

The Mariners went on to take two of three in that series at Kansas City, registering wins of 3-2 and 6-5 after dropping the opener, 3-1. The ‘under' cashed in two of the three meetings.

The two wins lifted Seattle's ledger against the Royals to 15-5 in the last 20 meetings, with the ‘over' going 7-3 in the last 10 MLB baseball matchups.

Seattle's Eric Bedard was scheduled to start his first game of the 2010 season, but was a late scratch in favor of Ryan Rowland-Smith (1-7. 5.92 ERA)

The southpaw is off last Thursday's no decision against the Yankees as a hefty 325 road underdog. Smith allowed two runs on five hits in six innings spanning 109 pitches. He walked three and fanned two, but the Mariners went on to suffer a 4-2 loss. The setback lowered Seattle's record to 3-12 in Smith's first 15 overall starts this season and 1-8 in his first nine road efforts.

Smith has not lasted past the sixth inning in any of his last six starts and has been tagged for six home runs in his last five assignments.

Seattle is 20-18 at Safeco Field, 25-30 against right-handed starting pitching and 11-15 in one-run games. The Mariners own a minus-62 run differential, as they are getting outscored 343-281. The Mariners rank 27th in the Majors with an anemic .237 team batting average.

Kansas City is 18-25 on the road, 6-9 against southpaw starters and 12-17 in one-run games. The Royals have a minus-39 run differential, as they are getting outscored 400-361. The Royals rank 26th in the Majors with a 4.67 team ERA.

MLB Weather won't be a factor in this series, as Safeco Field has a retractable roof.