MLB Odds: Braves at home versus Mets

By: Stephen Nover | Tuesday, August 31, 2010
Brian McCann

Brian McCann has hammered Mets pitchers at Turner Field in 2010.

Are the National League East Division-leading Atlanta Braves the best team in baseball?

The argument can be made they are when playing at Turner Field where they are 42-14 (75 percent) in their last 56 games through Monday.

Mike Pelfrey gets the unenviable task of trying to win at Turner Field on Wednesday night when the New York Mets meet the Braves in Game 3 of their four-game series that concludes Thursday night.

Pelfrey has been pitching well lately after a mid-season slump. The 26-year-old right-hander has won three of his last four starts, compiling a 1.20 ERA during this time frame spanning 30 innings.

Pelfrey is 13-7 on the season with a 3.61 ERA. He tossed eight shutout innings this past Friday in defeating Houston and Nelson Figueroa, 2-1, as a 140 home favorite.

The combined three runs went well ‘under’ the seven-run total. Pelfrey held Houston to six hits, while striking out four and walking two. Pelfrey threw a season-high 124 pitches in his eight innings. He has gone eight innings in each of his last two starts, while averaging 119 pitches during his past four starts.

Pelfrey most likely will have to deal with catcher Brian McCann, who has eaten up Mets pitching at Turner Field batting close to .390 in 11 games with four homers and 13 RBIs. Star rookie Jason Heyward has been hot, too, for Atlanta hitting safely in eight of his last nine games through Monday.

Pelfrey has been more effective at pitcher-friendly Citi Field going 8-3 with a 2.93 ERA compared to 5-4 on the road with a 4.62 ERA.

Lifetime versus the Braves, Pelfrey is 4-7 with a 5.45 ERA.

While Atlanta has the best home mark in the majors, the Mets have lost 41 of their first 67 road contests. New York is 19-41 away from Citi Field when meeting foes with a winning mark through Monday.

It’s not a stretch to question the Mets’ motivation and heart being double-digit games behind Atlanta in the NL East. New York had lost six of its last eight games to the Braves entering Tuesday.

The Mets probably aren’t going to have shortstop Jose Reyes in their lineup either for the rest of this series. He’s out with an injury to his right oblique.

That’s good news for Tommy Hanson, Atlanta’s scheduled starter. Hanson’s record is a very misleading 8-10 with a 3.76 ERA.

The 24-year-old righty had a 2.31 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in his last eight starts before losing 7-1 at home to Florida this past Friday as a 200 MLB money line favorite versus Chris Volstad. The combined eight runs pushed on the eight-run total.

The Marlins roughed Hanson up for seven runs – six of which were earned - on eight hits in five innings, including four home runs. Hanson hadn’t allowed a home run prior to that during his past 47 2/3 innings.

Hanson hasn’t won since July 3 through a combination of bad luck and lack of run support. Atlanta is 2-7 in Hanson’s last nine outings.

Hanson is 1-1 lifetime versus the Mets with a 1.02 ERA and 22 strikeouts in 17 2/3 innings.

The Mets swept three games from the Braves at home in April, but have lost six of the last nine against them through Monday.

The ‘under’ has cashed in 12 of the last 14 meetings between the two clubs going into Tuesday, with the Mets also going ‘under’ in six of their last eight overall road contests.

The early weather forecast is for clear skies with temperatures in the 80s and very little wind.