MLB Betting: Surging Reds face Dodgers in L.A.

Clayton Kershaw’s has nine quality starts in his last 10 home outings.

The Cincinnati Reds’ hot play is coming at exactly the right time as they finish a three-game series Sunday at the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Cincinnati (71-51) has ripped off seven straight wins since getting swept at home by St. Louis. St. Louis has been in a tailspin, losing five straight games (all at home). Cincy now has a 4 ½-game lead in the NL Central.

The Reds are 4-0 on their current nine-game road trip. They beat the Dodgers 3-1 on Friday night as Homer Bailey had another great outing against spot-starter Carlos Monasterios. The Saturday night late result is still pending.

Cincinnati is the NL’s highest scoring team, 5.05 runs per game at home and 4.87 away. Team road ERA is tops in the NL (3.43), much lower than at home (4.39). The plus 10.2 road units rank second on the MLB odds board.
 
The Dodgers’ (62-61) playoff hopes are fading every day. The offense has been anemic, averaging 2.13 runs over the last eight games (the ‘under’ going 6-0-1). Injured catcher Russell Martin, shortstop Rafael Furcal and outfielder Manny Ramirez have been replaced with light-hitting players.

The starters have kept L.A. in most games and it had five good ones after acquiring Ted Lilly from the Cubs. However, Vicente Padilla (neck) is now on the 15-day DL, with Monasterios replacing him.

Sunday’s starter Clayton Kershaw (11-7, 3.03 ERA) knows he must be almost perfect each game. He practically was last Tuesday against Colorado. He surrendered no runs and five hits over seven innings in a 6-0 home win.

The 22-year-old lefty has made nine quality starts in his last 10 home outings. The ace has an impressive strikeout rate of 9.32, but walks too many guys (3.38 per nine innings).

Kershaw has one start against Cincinnati this year. He got the road win on June 16, one earned run over 7 1/3 innings. He’s 1-0 with a 1.88 ERA in two career starts versus Cincy (both away).

Bronson Arroyo (13-7, 3.87 ERA) will be the opposing pitcher. He’s on pace to break his career-high in wins (15) and should surpass 200 innings for the fifth consecutive year with the team.

The 33-year-old veteran righty has a 2.80 ERA since June 1. He’s pitched great in his last seven road games (1.72 ERA). The Reds won six of those contests.

Arroyo beat L.A. in Cincinnati on June 17, allowing one earned run over seven innings. The Reds had lost his four previous starts against L.A. He’s 0-3 with a 5.56 ERA lifetime at Dodger Stadium.

This is the first series in L.A. this year after splitting six games in Cincinnati. The Reds are 6-18 in their last 24 games in Los Angeles even after Friday’s win.

Angel Campos will call balls and strikes. The home team is 6-1 in his last seven games behind home plate. The ‘over’ is 16-5 in Campos' last 21 games behind the dish.

First pitch on Sunday is 1:10 p.m. (PT). Weather should be perfect at 80 degrees and sunny.

Cincinnati will move on to San Francisco for a three-game series beginning Monday night. The Dodgers get a day off before playing at Milwaukee on Tuesday.