MLB Betting: Rays can’t rest versus Red Sox

Jon Lester and the Sox open a three-game set Monday with the Rays.

The Tampa Bay Rays may have a playoff spot almost wrapped up, but they can’t let up at the Boston Red Sox in their three-game series beginning Monday night.

The Rays (83-52) have a 7 ½-game lead over Boston in the wild-card race and eight over the Chicago White Sox. They’ll have just 26 games left after the conclusion of Sunday’s series-deciding game in Baltimore.

Tampa Bay needs to keep winning as it trails the Yankees by 2½ games in the AL East. The division winner will have the crucial home field advantage in a potential ALCS matchup. The Yanks have won eight straight pending Sunday’s results.

Boston (76-60) lost a doubleheader on Saturday to the White Sox, 3-1 each game. Former Red Sox slugger Manny Ramirez added insult to injury, getting three total hits.

Boston’s lineup is not nearly as imposing with Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis and Jacoby Ellsbury all out for likely the rest of the year. The MLB odds ‘under’ is 5-0-1 in its last six home games and 9-2-1 in its last 12 overall.

The Red Sox were just 4½ games back of the Rays after beating them on August 27. They then lost the next two in Florida, which killed their playoff hopes in the minds of many. Boston is 1-5 at home against Tampa Bay this year.

Jon Lester (15-8, 3.27 ERA) is a big-game pitcher, who Boston wants on the mound in this situation. However, his second half ERA (4.34) is much higher than the first (2.78). Boston is 0-4 in his last four home outings (one quality start).

The 26-year-old lefty has also been feast or famine lately. He’s given up no earned runs in three of his last five starts (21 1/3 innings). He allowed 14 earned runs (eight innings) in the other two games.

Lester got the victory in Tampa on Aug 27, out-dueling David Price by surrendering no earned runs over seven innings. He got rocked in his only home start against Tampa in April (seven earned runs over six innings). Boston is 1-4 in his last five home starts against Tampa Bay (7.44 ERA).

Tampa Bay is 28-11 in its last 39 games against a lefty. It’s 13-3 in its last 16 Monday games.

Jeff Niemann (10-5, 3.97 ERA) will be the opposing pitcher. He’s made two starts since missing three weeks with a shoulder issue. He’s allowed 17 earned runs in 8 1/3 innings in those two starts at the Angels and home to Toronto.

The 27-year-old isn’t blaming the poor performance on the injury, but the timing looks bad. Tampa Bay was 17-4 in his previous 21 starts with Niemann sporting a very solid 3.15 ERA.

The 6-foot-8 righty is 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA in two starts against Boston this year. The game in Boston in April was his only career start at Fenway Park, He allowed two earned runs over seven innings and got plenty of run support to beat John Lackey 8-2.

First pitch on Monday night is 4:10 p.m. (PT). Weather should be beautiful and in the 70s. The Red Sox have to face aces David Price and Matt Garza the next two nights and this is the only game they should be solid favorites.