MLB Betting Preview: Strasburg and Nats host Giants

By: Michael Robinson | Thursday, July 8, 2010
Adam Dunn

Adam Dunn clubbed three homers for the Nats in Tuesday’s win.

Washington Nationals rookie Stephen Strasburg won’t be pitching in Tuesday’s All-Star Game, but he will face the San Francisco Giants Friday night in his latest must-see event.

Strasburg’s All-Star merit was debated almost as much as where LeBron James will play next season. Ultimately, he was left off the NL roster and Strasburg was reportedly in favor of the decision after making just six starts.

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The Nationals (38-47) have fallen 12 games behind Atlanta in the NL East, pending Thursday night’s home finale with San Diego. Washington took the first two games to improve to 24-18 at home. A dismal 14-29 road mark is the main reason for its struggles.

The 21-year-old righty has captured the attention of the baseball world and has Nationals fans flocking to games. He’s responsible for three of the team’s four sellouts this season.

Strasburg (2-2, 2.45 ERA) has electrifying stuff with an upper 90s fastball and a knee-buckling curve. He struck out 41 batters in his first four outings. That was a major league record for a pitcher’s first four starts and he sported a miniscule 1.78 ERA.

The last two starts have been pedestrian, at least by his standards. He allowed three earned runs at Atlanta after the bullpen allowed two inherited runners to score in the seventh. Atlanta won 5-0 behind All-Star Tim Hudson. It’s the only game Strasburg hasn’t been a heavy favorite (plus 110).

Strasburg’s start last Saturday at home versus the Mets was worse. He walked three in the first inning and threw 37 pitches. He was removed after the fifth inning and 96 pitches, allowing two earned runs. His pitch count is around 100 each game, so he’s needs to be efficient.

The Nationals had a three-run, ninth-inning comeback against the Mets and are 3-3 in Strasburg’s starts. The ‘under’ is 4-2 overall and 3-1 at home. The Mets’ game easily went ‘over’ the 6 ½-run total, although the score was 2-0 when he departed.

Matt Cain is scheduled to oppose Strasburg. He’s 6-7 on the year even with a 2.98 ERA. Opponents are hitting just .227 against him with a .637 OPS.

San Francisco is 0-4 in Cain’s last four starts. His ERA was 6.85, with a terrible start at Houston on June 24 (seven earned runs over 2 2/3 innings). He has 13 quality starts out of 17, including eight of nine on the road. The ‘under’ is 11-2-2 in his last 15 starts.

Cain is 4-2 with a 2.67 ERA lifetime against Washington. He’s 2-0 with a 1.58 ERA at the new Nationals Park.

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The Giants (44-40) are going for a four-game sweep at the Brewers on Thursday. They outscored them 27-4 in the first three. Rookie catcher Buster Posey had six RBIs on Wednesday. They seem to have righted the ship after going 1-9 in a recent stretch.

Despite the scoring barrage, San Francisco is 11th in the NL in runs scored (Washington is 12th). San Fran is third in ERA (3.46), while Washington is 11th (4.16).

These teams met in late May in the Bay Area. San Fran won two of three and is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings. That includes going 6-1 in Washington.

San Francisco infielder Juan Uribe has been dealing with a finger issue. He’s been available off the bench and is having a good year (.763 OPS).

First pitch for Friday is 4:05 p.m. (PT). Weather should be clear and warm, in the upper 80s.