Let's start this little catch-all baseball preview with some shameful self-pity, specifically a few of my MLB futures wagers that are headed for the trash heap.
While I refuse to use the 'L' word (lock) for any sports wager, the fact remains that some bets are certainly entered into with a higher degree of confidence. Among my dozen or so baseball futures laid this past March were three that I expected to cash: St. Louis wins NL Central, and the 'under' on season win totals for both the Blue Jays and Astros.
There's no reason for the Cardinals to be eight games behind the Reds entering Sunday's action. None. Even accounting for Cincinnati being a better club than I imagined, there's still no reason for St. Louis to have fallen this far off the pace.
The price paid for the Redbirds to win the NL Central was minus 165, much steeper than I generally like to play on any futures wager. There's still time for St. Louis to win the division, but the problem is the Cards will be playing their final game against the Reds today. St. Louis also has four games on deck in Atlanta, a very tough place to win for visitors in 2010, plus four-game home series with the Padres and Rockies. Yes, there's still time, but this bet is a loser.
Toronto's win total was set at 71 ½ and the Blue Jays are already at 69. I fully expected this team to be a 90-game loser, but thanks to the top home-run hitting lineup in the majors and better starting pitching than I accounted for, we have another losing wager.
Finally, my beloved Astros. Houston got off to a great start as far as my 'under' 74 ½ win-total bet. The 100-game mark of their season (July 27) found the Astros 41-59, a pace that would have them around 66 ½ wins. That was also around the same time the club packed Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman off in separate deals.
Houston has since gone 22-13, with a four-game road sweep of the Phils and three-game broom job at home over the Cardinals highlighting the surge. The Astros are now in line for 75 ½ wins to just top the MLB odds number. They have a couple of series with the Reds that could help, but 16 of their remaining 27 games are against the likes of the Cubs, Brewers and Nationals.
Oh well, I still have a few futures on the Braves, Rangers and White Sox that could pay off and at least keep me from a red number at season's end.
Reds head to Denver
Football is on the brains of many right now, making it easy to possibly forget about some key MLB series to begin the week. One of the big matchups will be at Coors Field when the Rockies host the Cincinnati Reds for four to open the season's 23rd week.
Colorado is trying to make one last-ditch effort to become postseason relevant, and this series begins a 10-game homestand with the Rockies 43-22 on their own diamond this season. They started Sunday 5½-games back of the Padres in the NL West and 6½ behind Philadelphia in the wild card hunt.
The Rockies will open the set Monday with their ace, Ubaldo Jimenez (19-8, 2.69), and follow him with Jhoulys Chacin (7-9. 3.69), Aaron Cook (10-12, 5.21) and Jason Hammel (15-10, 4.25). Cincinnati is expected to counter with Aaron Harang (8-10, 4.92), Johnny Cueto (16-10, 3.41), Bronson Arroyo (17-11, 3.84) and rookie Travis Wood (9-3, 3.19).
Cincinnati took two of three from Colorado when the two squads met at Great American Ball Park in their first series following the All-Star break. Two of the three stayed below the baseball betting 'total.'
Red Sox host Rays in must-sweep series
The math says Boston still has a shot at grabbing an American League playoff spot. But just as with my Cardinals NL Central futures play, it's unlikely.
Boston will need to win 20 of its final 26 games, including the series-ender with the White Sox on Sunday, if the club is going to have any shot of playing on in October. Such a surge will have to begin with a three-game sweep of the Tampa Bay Rays who arrive at Fenway on Labor Day.
Season trends suggest a sweep of Tampa Bay isn't going to happen. The Rays have win 10 of the previous 15 meetings between the two clubs, including a four-game sweep of the Red Sox back in April that seemed to propel Tampa Bay while sending the Red Sox into a spin from which they have not recovered.
Monday's series opener, which will be previewed for DonBest.com by Michael Robinson, has lefty Jon Lester (16-11, 3.27) on the mound for the Red Sox against Tampa's Jeff Niemann (17-7, 3.97). Boston is scheduled to throw Daisuke Matsuzaka (13-7, 4.29) on Tuesday with the Rays sending David Price (18-8, 2.92) to the hill.
Jimmy Sirody will cover Wednesday's series finale for Don Best Sports, with ESPN televising the contest. Clay Buchholz (17-7, 2.25) gets the call for the home team with Matt Garza (17-10, 3.46) his opposition.
NOTE: W-L records displayed for starting pitchers are team records in games the pitchers start.