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August 8, 2008

NFC North preview

By Tommy Dutch
Don Best Associate Editor

The North appears to be a mediocre division at best. Minnesota and Green Bay are talented teams with questions at quarterback, while Chicago and Detroit have too many holes to be considered contenders. The schedule maker did the division no favors matching it up with the loaded AFC South. It's not the worst division in football but the North likely gets just one team to the playoffs.

Minnesota Vikings
Projected Record: 10-6

The Vikings closed last season winning five of seven and added significant talent in the offseason. They have the ability to win the battle for the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and possess enough athleticism to create game changing plays. If the Vikings get quality quarterback play, they could walk away with the division and be a contender in the NFC.

The play of QB Tarvaris Jackson is the biggest question mark entering the season. Jackson is physically gifted but must reduce turnovers and careless decisions. There is plenty of talent on the offense and if Jackson stays within himself the unit will be efficient. 37-year old, Gus Ferrotte is the new backup and will be called upon if Jackson struggles.

Running back is a great strength for the purple and gold. Adrian Peterson is one of the most explosive backs in the league and Chester Taylor is vastly underrated. Peterson will get the majority of the carries but both men have proven the ability to carry the load for an entire game. The hard running Taylor will be used mostly on third down.

Receiver was a weakness but Bernard Berrian was brought in from Chicago to bolster the unit. He is a reliable target for Jackson and his presence will loosen opposing defenses, creating room for the running backs. Bobby Wade, Robert Ferguson and Sidney Rice are all back and will be better utilized with Berrian being the number one threat.

The pass defense was the team's biggest issue last season and it was addressed in a big way. Former Chiefs DE Jared Allen is one of the fiercest pass rushers in football and S Madieu Williams was brought in to defend the deep pass. The Vikings already had an outstanding rush defense with Kevin Williams and Pat Williams plugging up the middle. A lot of pressure will be taken off the secondary with the addition of Allen. The defense may quickly regain the "Purple People Eater" nickname.

Minnesota is the best team in the division and may become one of the better teams in the conference. Coach Brad Childress has been an ally of Jackson from the start and may get rewarded for his patience. The defense and running game are excellent and that can go a long way toward a successful season.

Green Bay Packers
Projected Record: 8-8

Green Bay returns 20 starters from a team which was one drive away from the Super Bowl. The Packers had the second ranked offense and eleventh ranked defense in the league. An impressive mix of talented veterans and exciting playmakers make up the Green Bay roster and there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about the fall in Wisconsin. However, team leader and future Hall of Fame quarterback Brett Favre is not returning.

The legendary quarterback decided to part ways with the Green and Gold leaving a huge question mark at the most important position on the field. Aaron Rodgers has waited, watched and learned for three seasons and finally gets the opportunity to be the number one guy. Rodgers will have plenty of talent around him and should be put in a position to execute the offense without having to consistently make big plays. He doesn't have to win the game, he just can't lose it. The young signal caller looked good at Dallas last season and is more elusive than Favre. If Rodgers gets injured or fails miserably, rookie Brian Brohm, from Louisville, will be next in line.

Ryan Grant has emerged as the feature running back. The Packers had difficulties establishing a rushing attack in the first six games last season but thrived after Grant took over the main ball carrying duties. He rushed for 929 yards in the final 10 games which was second only to LaDainian Tomlinson. Brandon Jackson and Vernand Morency will get the majority of the touches on third down.

Rodgers' ability to lead the offense is more likely because of an able corps of receivers. Pro Bowler Donald Driver and playmaker Greg Jennings will be a headache for opposing defensive backs. Driver has led the team in receptions for the past three seasons, while Jennings is coming off a 12 touchdown campaign. Second-year wideout James Jones was third amongst rookies in catches and sure handed Jordy Nelson was drafted in the second-round to provide more depth at receiver.

The Green Bay defense has no glaring weakness. Pro Bowl DE Aaron Kampman and fellow DE Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila lead an above average pass rush, while DT Ryan Pickett specializes in slowing the rushing game.

At linebacker, Nick Barnett leads the team in tackles and A.J. Hawk continues to meet expectations. The defensive backfield is also above average. CB Charles Woodson is showing no signs of age. The former University of Michigan star didn't allow a touchdown and intercepted four passes in 2007. S Atari Bigby led the team with five interceptions and 14 pass breakups.

The Packers have a team built to win this year with the exception of a rebuilding project at quarterback. If Rodgers isn't asked to do too much the talent around him is good enough to get to the playoffs. However, the pressure of replacing a legend and leading a team which is expected to win, will likely get the best of the young signal caller.

Chicago Bears
Projected Record: 7-9

The Bears are more likely to play like last season's 7-9 team than the Super Bowl runner-up from 2006-07. Chicago has serious issues at all of the skill positions and will have difficulty scoring points. However, the defense had the offseason the get healthy and will be one of the best in the NFL.

The debacle which is the Chicago Bears offense starts at the quarterback position. Kyle Orton and Rex Grossman will battle for the starting job. Orton was named the starter for the first preseason game but the regular season job is anything but established. Each quarterback has had some nice moments in a Bears' uniform but they've more often shown obvious deficiencies. Grossman has superior raw skills and possesses a bigger upside but is also prone to turnovers. The rushing attack must be in full force in order to go with the more conservative Orton.

Last season, Cedric Benson was seriously injured for the fourth time in his career and the Bears had the third worst rushing game in the NFL. Benson now faces competition for his job after the Bears selected Matt Forte in the second-round of the draft. Forte is more of a punishing back and may become the third down option. 2007 third-round pick Garrett Wolfe provides quickness and can be used a dangerous receiver out of the backfield.

Complicating matters for quarterbacks is the lack of talented receivers. The top two receivers from last year are gone and the current group is iffy at best. Marty Booker is back in Chicago giving the Bears a solid possession receiver. The team is experimenting with Devon Hester as a wideout. His playmaking skills are unquestionable and could become the game breaker this offense desperately needs.

The defensive line is skilled and deep, while Lance Briggs and Brian Urlacher makeup one of the best linebacking tandems in the league. The secondary was banged up in 2007 and should be vastly improved.

If the defense stays healthy the Bears will be in just about every game but the offensive struggles will eventually wear on the defense. The offensive unit is in rebuilding mode and can't be considered a serious threat even in the mediocre North.

Detroit Lions
Projected record: 6-10

Quarterback Bobby Lane led the Lions to the 1957 NFL title and was then traded. In response, Lane said the Lions wouldn't win another title for the next fifty years. He was correct and he probably could have said 51. Detroit may be improving and adapting third-year coach Ron Marinelli's tough mental attitude but the team is still below average.

The Lions were the surprise of the first half of 2007 with a 6-2 start. However, they collapsed in the second half going 1-7 with five losses by ten points or more. The team's self publicized commitment to mental toughness will have a difficult time overcoming an overall lack of talent.

Jon Kitna returns as the starting quarterback. He is an experienced leader capable of managing a game but doesn't have the skills to put the team on his back and consistently make the game changing play. The Lions must run the ball more efficiently and keep Kitna is his comfort zone in order to succeed. Drew Stanton is a second-year signal caller out of Michigan State and may put pressure on Kitna for the starting position.

First-year offensive coordinator Jim Colletto is putting an emphasis on the running game. He is installing a zone-blocking scheme like the one the Ravens used when he was the offensive line coach in Baltimore. Three backs will get plenty of touches in Colletto's system. Third-round draft pick Kevin Jones was productive in a zone-blocking scheme at Central Florida and Tatum Bell flourished in Denver's similar system. Brian Calhoun was injured most of last season but will be involved immediately.

Mike Martz is gone but he leaves behind a talented receiving corps. Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson will be the main targets for Kitna downfield. Detroit's increased emphasis on running the ball may free up the large receivers more often. Johnson didn't live up to the hype but was bothered by a back injury and is healthy now. Mike Furrey and Shaun McDonald are short quick receivers who won't catch as many balls in Colletto's offense but can't be ignored by opposing defenses.

There are several question marks on the defensive side. The inconsistent yet talented DE Shaun Rogers is gone leaving LB Ernie Sims as the only excellent player in the unit. DT Cory Redding must rebound from a poor season and someone has to step up and apply pressure on opposing quarterbacks.

The recently ineffective secondary has been completely overhauled. CB Leigh Bodden intercepted six passes with Cleveland last year but the unit remains young and unproven.

The Lions have one playoff win in the last 50 years and aren't likely to get one in January. However, there is no dominant team in the North and Detroit plays winnable road games at Atlanta and San Francisco in September. If the mental toughness and improved attitude isn't just talk, the Lions could approach eight wins.

Check out our NFL odds and matchup reports.

 


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